jaster220

I saw dandelions in bloom today, so I'm calling the snow season officially over. Nature had it right as usual. After the early arrival of Robins, there was only one brief snowfall in March that lasted a day or two on the ground. As expected in a stronger Nino, this winter featured mostly a mild regime overall. The most notable stat was that the missing month of January actually showed up (now of all times) yielding the snowiest month (31.7") for mby since the historic January back in 2014. Also, while the 53.1" total was the fourth consecutive BN winter for my locale, at 90% of avg, it was considerably better than the previous three lackluster winters.

The mentioned blooming "yard weeds" were actually down in Mt. Pleasant. Just 30 miles south, but it's like night and day the difference. They had mowed grass at their Panera last week and today's mid-70s with some trees already showing leaves and all the flowering trees in full bloom. Reminded me of April in Marshall. While here in the hills and forest lands of Harrison we finally have solid "green-up" of lawns as I look at my neighbors across the street, but only the early bulb flowers were up this week like daffodils and such. A few green buds on the bushes on the south facing rear of our place, and nothing yet on the trees out front. I'm sure this week's warmth will move things along a bit. Finally got my 70+ and really enjoyed to today - it felt great. 

As a footnote, driving home Friday evening during the Wind Advisory and heavy squalls with 37F on the car thermo it was hard not to realize that this would've been a really doozy of a bliz had it been cold enough. But, was yet another strong system wasted on the shoulder season timing as The Mitt continues its long wait for another wide-spread CAT-5 bliz or lore. 

As long-timers here know I am mostly active from pre-winter until early spring, and will pop in if something truly significant should arise during the warm months. I'm less of a severe wx geek the older I get (and there's just less of that to follow here tbh). If you don't hear from me for a while, enjoy your warm season everyone! I will be trying to find time for more golf.

On 4/5/2024 at 10:54 AM, tStacsh said:

Finally signs of real spring coming next week.  Hopefully we are done with the 30's.  60's next week, then let's see if we can keep it around normal until the inevitable shift to INSTANT  summer as usual.    

I have not seen/felt a 70F+ day since Oct 27th last year in Detroit area. I'm beyond ready, lol

Forecast for a high of 69F here tomorrow. Might finally make progress on Feb's 68F, lol. And March was significantly AN across the state. I know it's not unusual for winter to linger into April (just see @westMJim's post above) like back in '82, but it's getting old seeing freezing or below temps every morning. When I was younger, it never bothered me that the majority of months in The Mitt are "cold months". The ratio is perhaps split 6/6 in the far south, while 8/4 in favor of cold way up at the Mighty Mackinaw bridge.  

Just 3" up here with this one. Good for a very distant 4th place storm total of the winter.

With a small patch/drift of snow next to my driveway, I'm looking at "snow-on-snow" to start off my spring right! (SMH)

GRR's latest map with the heaviest about a county south of here, but we've been in a sort of sweet spot this mild winter, so I wouldn't be surprised if it bumped north, especially considering the time of year. Had 17F on my car dash heading to work this morning. Even our cove here at the lake has skinned back over with ice. Supposed to hit 50F by Monday at least, after yet another wintry weekend. 

Happy St. Patrick's Day to all. There were grilled Reuben sandwiches for lunch Friday (on the house) in honor. Woke up to a dusting of fluffly LES making everything white again this morning. Went down to Rives Junction yesterday evening and it was still spring there with T-showers in the distance and green-up pretty noticeable about 40 miles south of Harrison. Bushes starting to get that green hue of early leaf-out. Have yet to see the early bulb flowers but I don't get into many places where I might see such tbh. Anyhow, have a great day whether you're Irish Catholic or not. I know it's the least desirable day of the week for the green beer drinking crowd. 

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

High of 61 today,  It's 66 currently.  Once again temps far exceed forecast temps.       With the colder air possible the latter half of the month, this isn't good.  Another warm day tomorrow.   Growth will kick into overdrive, that's not good.  

Yep, gonna be interesting. Sunday I saw 10 Robins on my street, grass noticeably green about 1 county south, and small leaves seen here this evening walking the dog. See May 1923 for "I guess anything's possible" or even late April 2005. But 04-05 was a pretty harsh winter unlike this one.

On 3/11/2024 at 1:07 PM, westMJim said:

In 1983 after a warm start to March, at Grand Rapids April had a departure from average of -5.0, May -6.5, June -1.3, July+1.9, August +1.1 and September -1.1. At Green Bay April had a departure of -3.8, May-7.7, June-1.9, July +2.1, August +2.1 and September -1.2. I am not sure what the water temperatures on Lake Michigan were that year. And this site does not go back that far.

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/statistics/average-surface-water-temperature-glsea/

Perhaps we just caught the right conditions up there but clearly July and August were AN. May must've been very forgettable, yuck!

Going to be another astounding flip between today and 24 hrs later per my local forecast:

Winter coat today...spring jacket tomorrow. Have to keep 'em both at hand lately, lol

On 3/8/2024 at 7:27 AM, westMJim said:

I would not be surprised if April, May and June are all cooler than average. In 1983 a winter with a strong El Nino that flipped to a weak La Nina April, May and June were all below average. 

At some point it must've flipped warm tho. I remember very warm Lake Michigan water that August all the way north of Petoskey, and that takes some doing. For the spring months, I do remember the 10" snowstorm in Flint on or about the equinox in March. After that I draw a blank until August, lol

On 3/7/2024 at 6:58 AM, Clinton said:

I'm not sure winter is done with you, models have been pretty consistent dropping a trough over the lakes and points east around the 18th.  Negative AO and NAO with a big dip in the EPO has the pattern looks ripe for some late season clippers, despite the MJO moving through the warm phases.

Winter is back, just for the weekend tho. Looks pretty much like at my place this first morning of EDT. Blustery WC of 11F

With piles and drifts melted-off, I do not foresee any sustained winter. Not ruling out random snow hits til late April up here ofc. Case in point, temps rebound here to above 60F most of the week. 

On 3/7/2024 at 7:57 AM, Tom said:

Come on down!   The ridge is going to build in well timed for this weekend (Nascar Race) and for the better part of the 2nd half of March from all indications.  Winter may return in your area when its not welcomed!

Hopefully, for not too long if/when it does. Thanks for the invite to AZ. Really like to get out there some time, just not going to be now unfortunately. 

On 3/5/2024 at 7:42 AM, MIKEKC said:

It's been too warm, a lot trees blooming here in KC and grass/weeds are growing. 1-2 inches of rain will likely shoot the grass up a bit. Come this Thursday, it will be 43 days since our last rain. Last rain was Jan. 24th-25th. (.50-.75) VERY DRY AGAIN!! Some indication that post the 15th of March, we just might see some cold in the pattern (cold for March is 30-40 degrees) and maybe some storms. It's been flashing in and out on the data..we'll see. We need this widespread rain to hit Thursday into Friday. 

..and just like that, snow drifts and piles are on the endangered species list up here. The one that our contractor plowed up in an open spot along our street is down to about 18" by eye-ball gauge. Time to "spring forward" and Solar Summer is just around the corner. I'm fine with the shift. This is the time of year when I am pretty much done with winter (although last year we had our best month in March, lol). Not sure I can handle another 13-14 endless winter anymore, lol. @Tom I could use a little Pheonix about now.  

19 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Crazy end to meteorological winter.    If it weren't for 8 days in January and 1 day in February, this would be the most non winter ever.   Certainly looks to end up as the one of if not the warmest winter on record here in SMI.  Looks like more record highs coming on Monday.  And looks to be slightly to mostly above normal as we head into the first 2 weeks of  March.   It's certainly going to suck when late March and April are terrible.  But maybe we break that trend in this pattern this year and bring on spring for good.  

If this were 200 years ago, this winter would be talked about as one of those "years without a winter" At least that how it feels.  

Had to laugh. 82-83 was worse, lol. We not only got those 2 solid weeks of cold, it came with two big storms and my deepest snow in years. Strong Nino is almost always bad anyways. This sorta broke that for the first time since maybe 72-73.

24 hrs later, this afternoon looked like this with W/C pegged at ZERO! Real feel temp down 66 degs from my comfy walk-about yesterday.

Can't wait for morning, lol

Evening commute with 67F on the dash thermo, whilst passing snow otg. Has to be one of my warmest days with snow around not just plowed piles. Also walked without a jacket on afternoon break and was very comfortable, then driving home I see the winter headline for the morning. I mean, it was warm the day before 11-22-15 storm, but like mid-40s not mid-60s. This may also be a personal warmest day prior to a winter event worthy of a headline. 

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Some weather history for Southern Lower Michigan.

1957: Mild and rainy weather prevails with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. The low of 47 degrees at Grand Rapids sets a record for the warmest low temperature for the date. Over an inch of rain falls as a cold front moves through.

1965, a snowstorm left all of Southeast Michigan covered under nearly a foot of snow. Saginaw received 17.9 inches, Flint had 12.9 inches, and Detroit had 11.0 inches.

Across the USA

1914,  Heavy snow fell over a good portion of South Carolina and North Carolina on February 24-26, 1914. Snowfall amounts include 18 inches near Society Hill, SC, 14 inches in Fayetteville, NC, 13 inches at Darlington, SC, 11.7 inches at Columbia, SC, 8.1 inches at Charlotte, SC, and 7.2 inches at Greensboro, NC, and 7.0 inches at Raleigh, NC.

1934, An outbreak of six tornadoes killed nineteen in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. The hardest-hit areas were Bowden, GA, and Shady Grove, AL. An estimated F4 tornado damaged or destroyed 90 homes, many in the Shady Grove community. One home in Lauderdale County, Mississippi, was picked up, thrown 400 feet, and blown to bits. Six family members were killed in the house. Three deaths occurred in two homes, and one preacher was killed during services.

 

I consider that Feb '65 "bliz" as the beginning of the two golden decades of big storms for SMI. I knew KFNT did well but wasn't aware of the Saginaw total. Since you lived in the area, when the NWS says "Saginaw", are they actually referring to measurements at MBS or somewhere else?

Temp says winter this pm, but there was a migrating hawk and a pair of Robins on my dog walk. Nature is saying early spring

Just wrapped up another solid week of snow cover and temps as low as -4F. It was great to get the huge snow in January during a strong Nino. I'm fine with calling it a season and moving on. Need to be eased back into the cold anyways after such a long stretch without.

12 hours ago, Tom said:

You might be one of the only members in our Sub that could still be in a somewhat "winter-like" pattern.  Lot of ups and downs in temps but at least you may be getting hit by clippers and LES.

And the over-night LES up in Grayling meant I have to retract my statement. After work there were indeed snowmobilers ripping down the trail that runs along I-75. Certainly not good conditions, but considering most of this winter, they got lucky.

12 hours ago, Tom said:

I have a serious question for you guys out East...How many of you are ready for Spring?  How many of you are still interested in Ol' Man Winter making a comeback?  The models in the LR the past few days looked abysmal and they pretty much do today.   I remember the feeling rather well when I lived back in CHI seeing brown grass during the Winter and how badly it sucked.   You get to the point late in the season where you are greedy bc light snow events didn't really excite me much bc you have to deal with a higher sun angle, rising, avg temps and you wanna see a Big Dog at least one time before you flip your mood towards Spring.  

 

Too early to even expect that up here, short of a March 2012 redux. Not a fan a the brown-n-grey drabs, but still large snow piles and ice covered ponds and lakes. Not too spring-like. Now we got this "March type" snow system and it's a beautiful mid-winter's evening with half a foot fresh white gold. Per APX, squalls could be a thing tomorrow as well. 

3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

looks like pound town in minny!

Yeah, I think they've added some Storm Warned cnty's as well since I last checked.