jaster220

Note 1981-2010 map

So glad I passed on that job offer in Iowa, sounds like Wx Hobbiest Hell! Don't forget tho, there was a time when Hell had more snow OTG than Marquette!

Corrected.

Op should be treated no more importantly than any other ENS member. Basically, that's all it is.

Nice to get one solid winter's day yesterday with snow covered ground and temps solidly below freezing, at least in the Northland where I was prepping the new digs. Couple pics to give an idea what the new region is like.

Glad all that snow over The Mitt is just LR "model static". That would not make for good moving conditions, lol.

Was a teenager and having had my youth colored with the frigid 70s winters of lore, I didn't know about strong Nino typical effects for our region (72-73 oddly had a cold-n-snowy Dec). The snow lover in me was not at all happy with that historically warm and brown Christmas. In a word, it was a major tragedy to me at the time. Iirc, we did get a dry gust front come through during the evening. Those were a consistent theme that winter as the primary storm track dumped snow on a line from Denver to MSP like clockwork. @gimmesnow would've been going crazy with that winter.

Serious winds along the coast with the arctic front: eliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1150 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1050 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNW Saugatuck 42.68N 86.22W 12/18/2023 M61 MPH LMZ845 MI Mesonet Mesonet station XSTK Saugatuck Pier. 0950 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 W Grand Haven 43.06N 86.26W 12/18/2023 M60 MPH LMZ846 MI Mesonet Mesonet station XGHL Grand Haven Light.

Looks like the new place scored decently even though GRR left us out of their WWA's: Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1206 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1120 AM Snow 4 SSE Harrison 43.96N 84.78W 12/18/2023 M3.0 inch Clare MI Public

WC's in the upper teens and snow showers blowing sideways stinging the ole face this evening, even here in the Metro. I'd say we saw a few "tenths" of snow today and roads were just starting to whiten-up this evening with a 31F reading right after dark. Was a nice little surprise while it lasted.

Baro is pretty low, WC's already in low 20s, and we haven't even got into the expected gusty NNW winds forecasted.

Thx for report, radar looked solid over almost all of SWMI.

Wondering if we could get one of these where the two SLPs "connect"?? That would be '78 style wowza The classic map vs:

Guess I am not keeping up. I missed this issuance of headlines from DTX overnight for the Thumb region: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 MIZ049-054-055-182130- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0010.231218T1700Z-231219T0500Z/ Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac- Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky 357 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER AND HIGH WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Snow and high wind expected. Total snow accumulation up to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph. * WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties. * WHEN...From noon today to midnight tonight. * IMPACTS... Expect bursts of lake effect snow showers and high wind to produce hazardous conditions. Increasingly difficult travel is expected during the event peak from mid afternoon through mid evening. The high wind could also result in damage to unsecured objects and localized power outages, especially near the Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron shorelines. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... A strong cold front will move through Lower Michigan during the morning with a mix of rain and a few heavier snow showers and wind gusts mainly in the 30 mph range. Coverage of snow showers remains highly variable as a northwest to north wind increases into the 40 mph range during early afternoon. Lake effect snow then increases coverage and intensity while peak wind gusts reach the 45 to 50 mph range from about 2 PM to 10 PM this evening. Both lake effect snow and wind diminish toward midnight and subside even further after midnight tonight. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take action to secure outdoor objects from the high wind gusts and plan for extra travel time this afternoon and evening.

FYP (on a side note, have snow-globe flakes falling now = very nice!)

If last year's arctic blast would've been just 1day later, I'm pretty sure it would have been a top 10 if not a top 5 cold Christmas day. Nature flipping the script again this year. DTW officially hit 15F, but it wasn't that "hot" where I was, lol

smallish flakes coming down here as well, so I have at least scored the mood flakes as anticipated from this. Anything beyond will be a bonus as far as I'm concerned. Just peeked at radar and snow appears to be falling at all (6) of my prior/future addresses this morning. That won't/don't happen very often, lol

@Tom Is there any data on how accurate the JMA is (skill score, etc) on these seasonal forecasts? I don't think anyone has been calling for a cold winter, let alone a "locked-in" cold winter with the Nino still raging. I'd like to have a better understanding if this is just more "model bias" in favor of our thirst for #realdealwinter?

Makes me wish I could shift into chase mode

Chicago at slight risk of getting MAUL'd per LOT This is in response to what appears to be a secondary disturbance centered around 700 mb races south-southeastward from southeastern WI and southern Lake Michigan. The presence of a Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer (MAUL) through the DGZ (-12 to -18C layer), along with strong winds up to 45 kt off the surface certainly supports the idea that a quick moving and potentially dangerous snow squall with strong winds and very low visibilities could occur early Monday morning. At this time, it appears the best potential area of impact would be across parts of northwestern IN, but certainly cannot rule out parts of the Chicago area near the lake getting clipped by this. Trends will continue to be monitored with this as the timing could be right in the midst of the morning commute.

GRR .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 We will add Kalamazoo County to the Winter Weather Advisory and upgrade Allegan County to the Winter Storm Warning. High res models continue to show lake effect snow bands persisting through Allegan and Western Kalamazoo Counties for several hours on Monday afternoon and evening during the period of high winds, so the combination of falling and blowing snow is expected to create hazardous travel conditions in Allegan County and this could extend into the western half of Kalamazoo County. The valid times will be the same for the existing advisory/warning.

Surprisingly snowy look tomorrow for MI even if it is a "one day wonder"

Nothing better than having your lawn decorations buried!

Well, that escalated quickly. SWMI

My former back yard is very near the expected worst conditions in the APX map: