SalemDuck

Here's the day 6-15 EPS 500mb pattern evolution.

The EPS looks much better than the GEFS does at day 11. I think I'll ride with the EPS.

For whatever reason weatherbell is having issues with the Euro op. Here are all three at day 10 GFS EURO GEM

Euro looks a lot more like the GEM than the GFS

Definitely trended worse, while the EPS has gotten better

The GEM continues to look like it's going to set us up much better than what the GFS is advertising.

The 12z GFS is progressive until the very end when it remembers it needs to have a ridge in the North Pacific and magically pops one up

The timing has been roughly January 18th for the Aleutian low to disappear and ridging to replace it for at least a week now

The drunk uncle looks to have improved in days 8-10

Here's the whole loop, It definitely pulses but hard to say if its a strong enough signal for it

Seems odd to have that consistent of a ridge without it ever amplifying but i’m sure it happens

The control run goes through periods of much greater amplification, just not always in the right spot

Euro weeklies just came out. Keeps a ridge between 150-170W the last 30 days of the run. Mostly center around 160W. Problem is it’s not very amplified so we stay in cool NNW flow most of the run. If there is any amplification the pattern would be amazing. If not it’s a lot of cold rain.

Control run is pretty sweet at day 15

Models definitely trended weaker with the ridge over us on days 8-10

The models know where they want to go. Just some uncertainty on how to get there. But all the long range and ensembles are pointing to a ridge in the GOA in about 13-14 days.

GEM continues to look better than the GFS

The GFS and GEFS are slowly becoming less bullish on the retrogression at day 8-9.

GFS day 16

Gfs long range is very progressive but there is plenty to work with

EPS is more of the same. Maybe a touch warmer and a touch messier with the ridge between days 11-13 but still gets to the same place.

Crazy control run! This is 1 week later.

If one is to believe the long range models (euro weeklies and GEFS extended).Weeks 3-5 have constant ridging in the gulf and at times into Alaska. Depending where the ridging sets up it could be awesome or could be a dud.

Last nights GEFS extended control run fumbles around with the ridge for about 10 days before setting up this beauty

It does... just for the southeast