SalemDuck

The GEM made some nice improvements

Big block in the long range. Need to move that east about 15 degrees

At least Phil’s Scandinavian ridge is still there

You’re going to look like a genius or the village idiot.

Last night’s extended GEFS control run is a Jan 1950 type run.

Good trends on the teleconnections. Mid December looks to be a good window.

The Euro is definitely not agreeing with the GFS on the Sunday-Monday trough but it's definitely trended it to the SW, while amplifying the ridging.

Final snow map...

It was PDX south basically, mid-Willamette valley was the bullseye I believe.

Flow is offshore, 925mb temps -3, 850mb temps -3/-4 and 34 at the surface, pretty good precip rates. It's realllllllly close.

EPS weeklies are pretty good, I'm sure we'll get a decent shot at something between mid December and mid January.

EPS continues to show serious cold building over eastern Alaska/Yukon/northern BC during the second full week of December. Ridging is centered way too far west for it to matter plus a raging + EPO.

Very few members send it to an okay spot

Florence please.

euro sends the system into Vancouver Island

Fwiw considering it’s temps the HRRR puts the low at Waldport

Does the extended HRRR have a big warm bias cause good lord this would be a non event for everyone?

Spokane International same thing. Supposed to hit 30, only hit 25. Omak was supposed to be 28, only hit 25.

Euro isn't handling the low level cold well imo. I'd take my chances with the track it's offering

Euro had them at 28 today.

18z Fully Drunk

GFS v16 is back and has Florence and Coos Bay landfalls for the two systems. It buries Olympia to Salem.

Euro has already begun underestimating the arctic air. Here's the last three runs at what was initialization (4am) this morning. Today Last night's euro Yesterday's 12z

This is a more accurate map imo