It was run set of runs..it will change. Also, if you live by the models, you'll die by the models when you talk about "staring at the models". Actually forecast. The model is just spitting out stuff. This is what in short, separates TV mets from the NWS pros. TV mets look at exactly model output and take it to the bank and usually die by it since there is never going to be a perfect prog. NWS mets actually forecast. They are take what is given to them by the models and then use their own knowledge and continue on. I'd bet there probably isn't a TV met out there besides a select few that could actually write an NWS AFD.