Omegaraptor

How often do 597dm and 600dm show up on the 500mb heights in the United States? I looked at the 18z GFS and apparently hour 240 is showing 597dm in Nevada and Utah. Obviously considering how far out it is, it doesn't really mean anything, but just a curiosity.

Who even knows if this will be a cool summer though. NWS is still predicting warmer than average conditions throughout summer.

2018-19 had a crap November-January and then we got missed all February just getting useless dry cold. Garbage precipitation throughout. Very few good things to say about this winter in the western metro area. 2017-18 was a bit better for PDX but still had a torching January. Precipitation wasn't exactly great. 2016-17 was good, I'll give you that. Unfortunately, winters that good are a very rare miracle. 15-16 had that EPIC December, but other than that was mostly warm trash. 14-15 is self explanatory. 13-14 was the last real Arctic Blast. Two years of drier than normal weather thus far with no sign of it ending. December and January are virtually guaranteed torches nowadays, and February is the only cold month. Not much good skiing before February, either. And of course, whenever interesting weather of any kind is shown on the models, it's always fun to guess whether it'll hit Seattle or Eugene.

Why do you guys seem to have so much optimism for this winter? You guys seem to be fairly confident that it will be cold and snowy for the PNW. I don’t get it.

As I've said before, I'm not afraid of a cool summer. There's a 2011 for every 2015, a 1983 for every 1985, and that's how you get an average. Persistent ridging is bad and persistent troughing is also bad. Persistent ridging causes drought and wildfires, and persistent troughing... ask a farmer in the Midwest. Widespread crop failures this year because of flooding.

1998 was a fairly warm summer. 98-99 was the best mountain snow year on record. 1999 was a cool summer. 99-00 was a mediocre winter. 2000 was a cool summer. 00-01 was an awful winter. I can dig up loads of examples, but I think I’ve made my point.

We all know about the summer of 1993 in the PNW, but rainy season that year didn’t start until December, and 93-94 wasn’t exactly a great winter for snow, at least at PDX. December and January were mostly blowtorches. But then again 92-93 was a very good winter for most of the PNW.

Definitely interesting how warm the lows have been this year (at least since the cold period ended in March). June didn’t go below 50 once at PDX. The only time we really had cold lows was that weird “sunny troughing” pattern in late April.

06z and 12z GFS both show a long range heat wave, but I think they’re both probably too hot to be true. Short range also warmed up.

00z ECMWF!

This is what I’m seeing for PDX. But then again, I’m using 2m temp rather than 850s.

Ensembles look significantly warmer than the operational on the 9th and 11th. They are, however, catching on to the rain on the 10th.

Most of the Bay is too dry for me. I like the Sierra Foothills as well as some places in the far north, particularly the Mount Shasta area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_City,_California#Climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunsmuir,_California#Climate These climates are both extremely good in my opinion.

Looks like another dry Fourth of July tomorrow. This will be the 21st in a row without significant rainfall at PDX. "It AlWaYs RaInS oN tHe fOuRtH"

18z GFS is essentially a toned down version of the 12z. High rainfall over all of BC, half an inch for most of Western WA, and measurable rain down to Siskiyou County. Okanogan and Ferry counties look real wet with the 12z and 18z. Funny how Okanogan County was actually the first significantly drier than normal region back in February and March. Those counties, while rural and sparsely populated, are still fire hotspots. If we can get a good soaking there, that’s definitely good news.

Wow this forum really is slow in summer compared to winter.

Don't worry guys, persistent ridging is coming back. Just gotta wait until November 1. Then it'll last until March 21 or so.

July record low in Sunriver is 19. September record low is 12.

Impressive how cold the summer nights can get in south-central Oregon. I've woken up to 30ºF in July in Sunriver once. Frost is possible on any day of the year, and has even been recorded on August 1st a few years ago there.

This is incorrect. 46ºF highs are only averaged in December and January, and there are normally plenty of atmospheric rivers and other heavy rain events to look forward to (unfortunately last winter was rather devoid of them). Spring usually starts much earlier here than anywhere else in the country at this latitude. Remember the early April event? The models were showing a 6 inch soaking for my area. 12 inches in parts of the northern Oregon Coast Range. Next thing you know, the whole thing derped south to Eugene and we barely broke our normal monthly rainfall. Apparently we hadn't had enough interesting weather events miss Portland.

I don't want a Miami or Houston summer lol. Just want plenty of 80sºF with sun. I don't want constant 90s in summer, and I don't want constant 60s and low 70s either.

12z ECMWF!

Kinda like what PDX saw back in early April. Cool days, warm nights, departures were often around average. The opposite happened in late April with the warm day cool night pattern. Parts of the region even got a frost at the end of April.

I am aware of this, but the switch was fairly recent. I heard a meteorologist say that ENSO isn’t just a magical switch that turns on and off, but when it changes, the global climate actually takes time to shift to the current ENSO state. How accurate is that statement?

Doesn’t a cool July in a Niño year tend to lead into a warm August and September? Also we haven’t seen a legitimately cooler than average summer month since 2012. Not many storms since 2013, either. As much as I don’t like to use this word, we’re most likely due.