westcoastexpat

Who said that?

It doesn't make sense.

EDIT: Double post

This actually sounded great until I read your last line.

Absolutely. Out east it's been the same situation: GFS has been abysmal, Euro has been highly inconsistent, GEM has been spot on.

Yup, ridge that was off the coast of Vancouver Island on the 00z now envelops the PNW. This significant change after one model run also goes to show how useless the Euro has been all winter in the LR

Of course it's not an absolute requirement, but in order to attenuate the time of the year, having weak offshore flow is not going to be enough to bank on definite snow, as stated by the poster.

The issue is that the Euro does not show solid FR outflow for areas along the US/CAN border. When you have a high pressure parked right next to Vancouver Island you run the risk of onshore flow combating the offshore flow, which allows for mixing. This raises the dew point and moistens the air column, raising temperatures aloft hurting chances of decent accumulating snow during an already borderline setup. This doesn't mean snow is a no-go, but it does significantly hurt the chance of any snow having a decent shot at accumulating. Also, a word of the advice: don't bother looking at the GFS this winter after hour 72.

I'm not sure that it's the best idea to be dedicating entire threads to tracking a storm that showed up on one model run. It gives the clean up crew on this forum more work than necessary. Also, it's the GFS....

This thread should never have been started. You don't discuss significant snow threats 10+ days out. It's this alarmist posting behaviour that gets the weenies' panties all tied up in a knot.

Not quite that simple. It's always best to look at a closer view of a model run than the continent view. At the end of February, for areas near the water, you're going to need -5c or lower 850s, so -4c is going to be very borderline. 00Z Euro output does not show a widespread NE wind direction; actually, it shows quite a bit of wind shear as a small high pressure off Van. Is. fights the offshore flow with the onshore flow, which will allow surface mixing with the air aloft, which is moderating the 850 mb height thermal layer. However, CZ formation could be in the works. We are still a week out so I'm not going to start analyzing CZ formation possibilities: this is something you do a couple days out. But right now, I don't see anything too exciting for the Bellingham/Vancouver area, unfortunately. Of course, this is all Euro discussion, a model which has done a (surprisingly) poor job this winter. The RGEM shows no tangible snow at this point, and it is the model to go by at this stage.

The RGEM this winter has been continuously fantastic in terms of accuracy.

This. This. This. I think this is when the met (or even statistical) education vs. the weather addict wishcasting starts to come into play. I am also not a fan of analogues at all. "Return periods" for weather are a whole 'nother beast. Perhaps my education has made me boring and dull, but sometimes the reality is that discussing analogues is a waste of time for the most part; however, as humans we often do things that are a 'waste of time' for the simple sake of having something to do... and in this case, it's perhaps simply a conversation piece of a forum where the weather for the region is rather moderate in general.

A troughy pattern looks to be likely in the LR. 12Z Euro is showing this idea also: This could be the (spring) break that the mountains really, really, really (did I say really?) need. It doesn't look like the true arctic air will be on this side of the continent, but this could open the opportunity for a lowland late winter/early spring snow event. They may be transient but they can be exciting. I'm thinking that the arctic outbreaks (multiple below-freezing highs) may be done for this season.

There's the spirit! Love posts like this.

Snow depth does not account for snow piles, otherwise most places would have "snow cover" for at least a week after a 2" snowfall... Nothing exciting about the crusty brown glaciers of snowfalls past, IMHO. 1' of snow will last about 5 days of both rain and mild temps.

Jesse, thank you for editing all your nasty posts from this morning. I'm glad to see that you're able to congratulate Andrew on a job well done and changed your insults against Tim to more mature posts. This is the type of change in behaviour that should be applauded! I'm happy to see you coming around. I'm happy to see those earlier posts removed. I'm proud of you!!

If you have an issue with one of Jesse's many posts, simply hit the report button and provide some context and why it's an issue for you. Don't feed the trolls, please. It simply clogs up the thread with nonesense.

Tough run for Vancouver/Bellingham. No accumulations, some spots with trace momentarily, raining much earlier than forecast.

It has been an interesting winter for my hometown: normal in terms of temperatures, below normal in terms of rain, well below normal in terms of snowfall. The big story has been the fog. Clearly south of Olympia has been the big winner this winter with cold temperatures and snow. Vancouver area looks to pick up 1-2" before the transition to rain tomorrow. A bit disappointing but their time will hopefully come later this winter. I'm hoping that next winter will be more active for the forum in terms of snowfall. Did Seattle end up with normal snowfall overall for the winter of 2010-2011? Vancouver hasn't hit near normal seasonal snowfall since '08-'09.

We're talking about snow, here. Areas north of Olympia have had the same crap: below normal, dry, snowless (again).

He's right, though. You guys are blasting him unnecessarily. Let's stop it. No place for that type of immaturity in here. If you have an issue, report it.

Sublimation.

Depends where you are, though. For areas north of Olympia it's the same old poop. There is desperate need for a "spread the wealth" storm.