Meatyorologist

NAM is further east with the trough, about the same for the block. I figured the 06z was quite flukey with its trough position. With other models the trend is our friend.

06z is somewhat better.

For what it's worth (just about nothing...), the 06z NAM is markedly improved over the 00z, though blocking is further east, so it could just be a flukey run. Still got another 36 hours before the Aleutian low begins taking form. Go GFS...?

November cancel???

I think this statement introduces 2019-20 as an analog

00z is noticeably worse than the 12z. Could wobble back tomorrow, the block is still evolving.

When will the MJO hit my house Phillips?

00z Significantly weaker with the high latitude blocking. Won't be quite as as cold...

While it is true that there is no way of telling what the winter will be like based off the weather in October, it is also important to consider that SST's are much different than last year, and therefore the atmosphere will react differently and tend towards different patterns.

LFG!!!!

2. Just because that sounds really good right about now

guys you're not going to believe this but I just lost all FOUR THOUSAND of my burner accounts!

Euro flattened out the ridge on the LR. Go EPS!

That GEM run has highs in the upper 30's for western WA. Not even getting the full blast. Probably some serious terrain issues, but still, fun to see.

Euro definitely father west with that block.

18z GFS throws a curveball around 200 hours out.

I can find myself becoming that type of person

I'm not really on the ride itself, just watching the rollercoaster go up and down. If it gets close enough.... maybe.

All models latching onto a more progressive solution. Oh well, there goes the 6" of hypothetical hoar frost! Maybe it will be back in 12 hours...

Chilly out. Already in the low-mid 40s in most places. Could see widespread 30s.

These gusts are in knots, so they're actually about 15% higher than the listed values. Around 70mph in the sound. Would be a pretty damaging storm, though I wouldn't go so far as to call it "devastating". Still better avoided for the well being of the region at the expense of us weenies, though mother nature will do as it pleases. Which is probably scrapping the storm entirely in the next run.

Yeah it doesn't get the true cold south of the border, but it displaces the North Pole over Canada. Almost sub-500dam heights in the prairie... Super fun to look at

This GEM run is going to look nutty. Cold pool is deeper and block is in the perfect position. True eye candy

It wants to drop the hammer sooooo bad lol

There's a lot of this talk that comes from the survivors of hurricanes and tornadoes, when compared to the thousands who actively chase them for sport and often times monetization for their footage. I hope you don't lose your power.