Meatyorologist

And the GEM is better. I don't know why, but I have a hinting suspicion that the GFS operational is going to be an outlier in its own ensemble suite.

00z GFS rolling out now.

Just as I figured... The ICON "stepping back" from its already amazing 18z run still keeps things pretty Arctic, and probably far better than any other operational run will be tonight!

Around 72 hours before the hammer does.

The 18z was so good this still might be the better run of the night lmao

hr54. And remember, it's just the ICON.

ICON looks like a step back.

Exactly what I've thought. Wherever that PSCZ parks could get some immense totals, especially with the subfreezing Arctic air involved. Pretty heartening to see my place be depicted as ground zero on multiple models. NAM has been a bit less consistent.

Big 00z runs incoming.

Don't look now, but the 18z EPS is massively improved.

18z control goes a little nutty

Oh fuckking save it man. Stop making everything so personal. Try to be a little nicer? Your victim complex here rings duller and duller when you are so needlessly defensive and antagonistic all the time.

Let's not encourage suicide.

That's definitely a modeling glitch

This is actually a big deal, and even I overlooked this.

Also... The operational Euro run should be treated like one memeber of a 51-member ensemble cast, amongst a sea of other ensemble suites. It's not the be-all-end-all. It sucks to lose it, but all models are flailing right now.

I get the lamenting for the upcoming BSF/+EPO hell that is about to commence in a week, but isn't this the first time we've seen that kind of pattern all cool season? It's not like our Nov/Dec has been defined by it. Besides, how the hell do you go all winter without any SW flow and AR "fun"? Like even for just a week or so out of the whole season? Going through late Dec without it is impressive.

If I don't wake up with at least a few roasts I will be pretty disappointed (I can take jokes!!) Seriously, this is the guy moderating this place??!

06z Euro will psave us

06z GFS thus far looks lockstep with its 00z run.

Technically not a face reveal considering my publically available twitter profile pic is this

Face reveele. @Gradient Keeper Keep updating!!! Wasted as all hell with friends. I am following along with the 06z with you

Been a few real potent airmasses in each of the last three winters. Bad blocking and more work needed to get those airmasses is what's killing our potential. January is coming.

Upstream blocking looks worse on the 18z Euro, yet the trough digs out more. wat