Meatyorologist

18z GFS Day 1 (Tropical Tidbits edition!): 4 Run Trend:

Pivotal is having issues right now... I'll catch up on it when it's back up and running. Hope you feel better soon Rob

@Gradient Keeper You got the 18z GFS???!!

WHOA that is way different and way better!

Yes I was. It was partially my fault, too. I'll take responsibility for that by not talking about it here as well.

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/forum/27-off-topic/ Alright, that's enough. Going to start handing out 6hr tempbans if this discussion continues. It's clogging up the thread and is only leading to petty conflict. If anyone wants to create an appropriate venue for the subject, there's always the Off-Topic board. I might join in on that myself if anyone makes a Climate Change thread!

Those comments are unfair and generalizing, even in a non-political context. Think about what you say and how it might affect others. Empathy is the cornerstone of a healthy discussion.

Leave the political talk for the appropriate thread, please.

Winters have steadily warmed since the 60s. Just recently our running 10 year averages just passed the 42.5F mark. 50 years ago they hovered between 40.5F-41.5F. Makes sense for AGW, if not a little more blunted than I'd expect.

These comments are why we can never come to a mutual understanding on the subject.

Exactly.

Spring/Autumn temperature trends are more balanced, and I think show a more accurate portrayal of the change in our energy budget and our anthropogenic warming. Comes to about 2-3F over time, which feels about right.

When your 'metric' involves blatant cherrypicking, then what good is the metric? Long term, winters have warmed steadily, if not stagnated entirely, at least at KSEA. Regardless, there are so many clashing airmasses during the winter months that the resulting variability clouds any real underlying trends. In the summer, temperatures from all incoming airmasses are modulated directly by insolation rather than advection, so the trends are much clearer.

Absolutely CRUCIAL 18z GFS run coming up... Just kidding. It will mean nothing, and it will disappoint/excite regardless.

Still gorgeous country

It's really sad, man. But you've got lots of trees on your properties so I could understand why it's less disappointing for you

I could really use a windstorm right now.

Rob is securing this bag for all of us and none of you have any idea

Jim, can you compare it to the 12z EPS yesterday? I'm wondering if we've completely bounced back from that sort of disappointing 00z EPS.

On a tolerance/addiction break through the end of the year. Started November 21st. Wish me luck, I'm around halfway!

That is a huge move!

My cat left a giant smudge of litter on the kitchen floor today! Must have seen tomorrow's 12z Euro a bit early.

At any rate, the pattern next week looks meteorologically fascinating.

Usually the Northern Territories north of BC, sometimes just north of Alaska. Sometimes we source them endogenously from just north of the border. Rarely we get them straight from AK, Siberia, or even the heart of Canada if we're in a really absurd pattern. In February 2021 we were breathing in air from the Labrador Sea!