GobBluth

which is the kontroll?

not to get all deadspin, but +1. new 18z gets the action going within the believable time range with atmospheric river action - doubt the ski areas would like that much.

12z canadian is a great pattern evolution but still looks too warm for snow - potential for the nice confluence of arctic air from the north and undercutting moisture under the GOA ridge.

could be some needed rain for California.

Chances are high for measurable precipitation by February 28th.

Some of the ensembles look good but the mean is splitty. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_12z/f192.gif

The models are trending towards a pattern similar to January, but at least the sun will come up tomorrow. Will that work?

The Canadian is going the wrong direction.

The only positive I can see is that the flow may be more progressive. However if that east coast trough can't get dislodged the chances of continued ridging is very high.

who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?

Incredible - there's a default ridge solution that never goes away through 384.

At the very least maybe a strong west/northwest jet to build up the snowpack.

12z says the pattern change is only temporary and ridge builds back in.

Kind of a mediocre GFS run - the pacific jet never gets cranking with some splitting offshore and ridging wants to immediately build back in just offshore. Have to wait until well into the resolution change for anything positive

18z is horrible - ridging hangs strong for a few more days and then the trough digs offshore.

Canadian looks great about day 9.

The evolution on the 12z is very positive.

Latest gfs is more ridge stubborn in the long term.

It's wet and thats what we need.

384 hr gets us to Super Bowl Sunday, and -22 850s over NYC...

no support for retrogression or pattern change here. There is no kicker to knock the Hudson Bay low out of there.

Ugh, I can't get on the retrogression train that depends on exact placement of a cut off low.

Sound the alarms. 6z gets interesting

That's a locked in Hudson Bay low.