GobBluth

Very inconsistent in what happens later next week.

Euro is much slower bringing that trough through next week, which is ironic since the GFS has sped it up.

18z has jumped aboard the quicker eastward progression of next week's trough.

It's on its own stalling out next week's trough.

Weird criticism. The GFS spitting out -10F in the middle of December is never taken as gospel. Also, winter temperature progs are never that far off unless it's a situation of south winds taking over for east or a surprise sky clearing. More rare than a sunny summer day.

Canadian is just a tad different...highs barely get over 70 by day 10.

Not to lean on the NBM as a crutch as the Portland AFD has a habit of doing, but it's now showing low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday.

don't cry because it's over smile because it happened

Day 10+ heat wave is very muted. Looks like CMC made a similar trend.

New GFS is much faster with the Friday crash. Saturday looks legit cool now.

18z GFS introduces the idea of a progressive pattern in the long term.

We're going to need to relabel the four corners ridge.

Strong El Nino's typically lead to strong La Ninas, but does the opposite occur? As in strong El Nino coming in 2023/24?

New GFS would agree with the less scorching idea next week and a collapsing ridge by next weekend.

Take the over on tonight's lows...

Very weak might be generous, but definitely not maximizing the heights under that ridge.

GFS less ridgy next week?

Humanity has adapted to worse.

I think the entire west is going to be waiting for the seasonal weakening in September of the SW high to finally move into a new regime.

Only improvement I see is that when pattern reverts to the big ridge, the 850s don't get to the 25c range.

New Euro is slightly disheartening... cut offs causing model chaos.

GFS was the last holdout for extreme heat next week but 12z is much more in line.

Funny thing is the models have hinted a couple times of next week's hot ridge doing a big broad retrogression and putting the pnw into a zonal nw flow. Could see that actually happening into September when the 4ch is ready to die.

Certainly not a fit for the last 60 days of ridges

Don't look at the temps the GFS is spitting out for next Wednesday.