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SeanNyberg

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Everything posted by SeanNyberg

  1. SeanNyberg
    It never does this far out. it always holds it back until the day of. This aint our first rodeo!
  2. SeanNyberg
    LOL that'll change. Watch. That precip south will move up (it always does). Plus a few other snow makers that'll pop up over the next few days.
  3. SeanNyberg
    Let's hope this isn't the case for Oregon. It's just mean. Like, straight up, F-ing mean. But much better for snow in Seattle.
  4. SeanNyberg
    00z GFS looking a little more realistic than the insane deep freeze the other models are showing.
  5. SeanNyberg
    This is going to be a snowy storm. We’re starting to see the first hints of a few opportunities, this is just going to grow as we get closer. There’s a lot of *stuff* happening with this system and it’s not hard to drum up a few inches out of very little with these temperatures.
  6. SeanNyberg
    18z GFS Ensembles also snowier across the board.
  7. SeanNyberg
    GFS Ensembles running 5-7° cooler run to fun for surface temps around Seattle Late Thursday through Saturday. Improvements all around.
  8. SeanNyberg
    I don't think you get the point I was making. We've had nothing but rounds and rounds of confirmation and positive trends. I think there comes a point when we say "well, it looks like there is a story being written here"
  9. SeanNyberg
    Hot takes from the forum over the last 24 hours: "ICON is WILD, don't believe the extreme event it shows" "EURO is WAY too cold, don't believe the extreme event it shows" "Canadian is INSANE, don't believe the extreme event it shows" "GFS is DRUNK, don't believe the extreme snow it shows" I know this is just y'all hedging after years of being disappointed and the trance that this forum can put people in, but the evidence is right in front of our face. This is going to be a big event, the question now is just how big and how long.
  10. SeanNyberg
    it'll track north
  11. SeanNyberg
    Back down to 20 by Monday morning
  12. SeanNyberg
    Weekend temps around Seattle on this warmer run are now... high of 21° low of 11°
  13. SeanNyberg
    Euro has a slightly cooler start and a slightly warmer weekend. And by slightly warmer weekend I mean, still in the lower teens.
  14. SeanNyberg
    For the sake of completion, the ICON did trend warmer (they don’t have a model to model change map). However, the temps warmed by around 3°, going from 8°f to 11°f So, yes, trended warmer. But, not of any concern.
  15. SeanNyberg
    Since I showed the GFS ensemble, here is the GFS model to model change for surface temps on Saturday. All trending in the right direction.
  16. SeanNyberg
    Canadian ensembles continue the cooling trend, which is impressive since they were already in the low 20s. Lol With the model discrepancies that really took hold on Friday, I think it’s still best to suss out trends to see where things are shifting. Yesterday saw nearly all models trend colder and today the warmer models are continuing that trend. If you’re team Winter Storm then this is all great news.
  17. SeanNyberg
    GFS Ensembles surface temps cooling yet again on this run. The GFS walk back continues.
  18. SeanNyberg
    Huge improvement on the GFS!! This is exactly what we needed to see. A reasonable and rationale shift colder and snowier. Big improvement.
  19. SeanNyberg
    Just wanted to show how things have changed among the models since we were all sitting here last night. These are surface temperatures for Seattle for next Saturday late morning (10am, 11am, 1pm ... the models have varying hours available). I will show the temp from the most current 00z, the temp from 24 hours earlier, the previous 00z, and show the difference. And let's see if we see a trend. (I couldn't get both the current 00Z Icon and the 00z Icon from the day before, so for the Icon I compare the OOz to the previous 12z) LOCATION: Seattle PARAMETERS: Surface Temperatures in Farenheit 24 hr Change in forecasted Temperature for Saturday January 13th 1/7 00z Euro: 11° 1/6 00z Euro: 17° One Day Difference: 6° Cooler 1/7 00z Euro Ens: 22° 1/6 00z Euro Ens: 29° One Day Difference: 7° Cooler 1/7 00z Canadian: 15° 1/6 00z Canadian: 33° One Day Difference: 18° Cooler 1/7 00z Canadian Ens: 22° 1/6 00z Canadian Ens: 26° One Day Difference: 4° Cooler 1/7 00z GFS: 40° 1/6 00z GFS: 36° One Day Difference: 4° Warmer 1/7 00z GEFS: 27° 1/6 00z GEFS: 32° One Day Difference: 5° Cooler 1/7 00z ICON: 8° 1/6 12z ICON: 42° One Day Difference: 34° Cooler AVERAGING ROUGHLY: 10° Cooler in 24 hours None of this means anything. LOL! Except to show that the trends today have been overwhelmingly positive.
  20. SeanNyberg
    Nonono. Absolutely post them for the purposes of hyping everyone up. They're like a non-narcotic stimulant. LOL. But do not put them up and refer to them as if they're actually going to happen. lol
  21. SeanNyberg
    STOP WATCHING THE SNOW TOTAL MAPS!!!!! LOL FOR YOUR OWN SANITY!! If this thing plays out as it shows in a number of models, there are plenty of opportunities for lows to form, for convergence zones to pop up, and the hundreds of other ways we get precipitation forming seemingly out of nowhere with our microclimate and unique topography. That is far far far above the abilities of any of these models. They can pick up large and medium scale features, but they have a hard time picking up the smaller systems that can end up dumping a ton of snow. So STOP REFERRING TO THE SNOWFALL MAPS! They are completely inaccurate
  22. SeanNyberg
    yeah. This is a big win. Gotta see the rest of the run and the ensembles, but it's all right there. beautiful
  23. SeanNyberg
    00z GFS ensembles decently colder form the 18z GFS ensembles. 00z GFS ensembles MUCH colder than that 00z GFS Good sign
  24. SeanNyberg
    Like the craziest people out there, the GFS is either brilliant beyond our comprehension and is seeing things we can't understand. OR, it is legitimately crazy and is hallucinating and hearing voices.
  25. SeanNyberg
    Snow requires cold and precip. We have a lot of avenues to bring precip into the region. We have very few ways to get cold into the area. The hard part is getting the sub freezing temps in here, that's the thing to worry about first.
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