Gradient Keeper

^ LOL! SHITS

Epic! "shits" isn't censored but "D**n" is lmao... I love this place *high 5's iFred*

Perhaps. Would we? ever? Just for shits and giggles imagine if we had 5-7 arctic blasts say from December 10th - February 20th, do you think anyone would complain or get tired of "the D**n snow and cold!" hmmm... I don't know. I'd be okay with it.

Yeah, those poor folks have been really deprived of cold and snow this Winter. It simply isn't fair that we keep hogging all of the goodies. We simply are stuck up and selfish how we refuse to share. We were taught to share! screw the rules

It may be the 18z, but I definitely like the 500mb pattern progression developing day 6-7 it looks more "believable" if you will. AND you will! or else....

At least the 500mb pattern gets its act together sooner. Ridge/block merger near day 7. Better than seeing it at day 10-12.

HR 168 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_168_500_vort_ht.gif

Just for the heck of it..... 18z GFS 500mb HR 120 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_120_500_vort_ht.gif HR 144 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_144_500_vort_ht.gif HR 156 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_npac_156_500_vort_ht.gif

Terrifying. It is nice to see a frontal boundary inside 130 W though. Rare http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/4km/NW/WV4NW.GIF

Corbett had a gust to 74 this morning which equates to over 100mph along the steps at Vista House. Also, from judging that along with Biddle Butte gusts compared to the past 2 events which is slightly lower I'd say 95mph+ I bet is about spot on.

Oh wow really.... I'll have to load it up and look. *falls asleep*

Wow....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3XzRHLYE0Y#t=58

Yeah, and it's not like there has been anything else to discuss. I disagree completely.

18z GFS is running! Is anyone else excited because I am not. :ph34r:

PV Split

12z GEM http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en Chilly, and gotta love that cold low dropping down the Coast day 9-10 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

Pretty decent suite of 12z operational runs eh?... Ensembles improved too. Not biting yet, not even excited, but I am somewhat optimistic. I am really interested on how the EURO Ensembles will look. Hopefully we build from here with 00z transpiring roughly the same and start a new, colder trend. It's pretty D**n cold here I'll tell you that much! 36.5, cloudy, and howling east wind 35-40mph. It is likely 95-105mph(if not stronger) at Crown Point, but I have no idea the sensor is down as is Corbett's (Power outage)

If anything the past 24-36 hours of operational runs and especially ensembles have revealed that we have had an increasing spread among ensemble members and thus greater uncertainty beyond day 7-8. It may sound redundant, but this could go either way. It could turn cold/arctic and possibly snowy, it could remain ridgy, or maybe the jet breaks through with ample moisture. I would unfortunately lean towards #2 or something like that with the ridge 130-140 W, but not in the sweet spot, or other problems the block not configured favorably, lack of southeast US ridge, etc. Hopefully 12z runs later today(it's Monday now) turn things around, less ensemble spread, colder members, and better operational runs. I don't have much confidence, but I won't be foolish to discount the possibility either.

You never needed to leave anyways. This Forum wouldn't be the same without you anyhow, and you know it. Post the ensemble. I saw the 00z EURO at day 10. Ya, it's quite a bit better than the GFS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f240.gif

Yeah, me neither. Try this one http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

00z GEM(Canuck Model) http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en

I think the thing you need to understand is people aren't posting "the worst" or negatively as to spite you or anything like that. It's okay for you to be optimistic, but keep a sense of realism in doing so. I think you feel that if this Winter doesn't pan out that it's the end of the world, but it isn't. It will suck if we don't see anything in February, but it's just the weather. It isn't life or death, or anything you should be down about. Right now models are wishy-washy. We've had a few good operational runs, and a few ensembles that are encouraging, but that's as far as I'd go with things, and you should do the same for your own sake. The trend(if we can call it that today) overall today wasn't good. The EURO ensembles are decent. The GFS Ensembles have trended a bit less favorably, but not horrible(at least mountain snow), but the ensemble spread tells us there is too much uncertainty beyond day 7. Try to be more objective and don't have a "all or nothing" mindset. Just trying to give you a bit of advice for your own sake and your own sanity. Now onto 00z EURO/Ensembles, and 12z tomorrow. Let's see how things shake out.

Ridge and block merger was so close HR 156-162.... so close, yet so far away. This run surely sucks.

HR 180 Meh.... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_180_500_vort_ht_l.gif

00z GFS HR 162 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_162_500_vort_ht_l.gif