Gradient Keeper
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Posts
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Everything posted by Gradient Keeper
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Day 9 -
Day 9 850mb temps. Obscenely cold! Then add the strong east winds! So even with a stronger low, it still phased really quite well with the arctic trough, just delayed the cold. Hmmm....
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Day 8
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Day 8.5 to 9 turns cold
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Day 7
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Day 6
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Day 5
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What the... 26mb stronger than 6z 976mb/1002mb, and 10mb stronger than 12z 976mb/986mb.
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Crap. Day 4 low is much stronger.
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Day 4
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Day 3
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Day 2
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12z GFS Day 1
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Yeah super tanked! While we wait for the 12z... 00z GEFS Teleconnection Indices forecast. Amazing the PNA still showing a -6 sigma. Actually a touch below. I've NEVER seen it this low. We also have a negative WPO and EPO slightly too.
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Cya for 12z. Time for a power nap (Model riding fuel)
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6z GFS Ensembles - Surface temps Portland - Note the dip and temps holding below freezing 24-31 for about 3 days. I think this may not be cold enough due to the frigid temperatures shown for the Columbia Basin as there should be strong east winds too. You'll see the frigid temps below with the Yakima ensembles. IF model runs continue the same progression Day 5-8 look for these to trend even colder! Seattle - Temps down to 19-20 degrees. Not bad. A cluster of members colder yet. Yakima - Very cold here. Temps down to 8 degrees with many members closer to 0.
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6z GEFS 850mb Temps Day 6.5 - 16. Nice surge of arctic air and even as we moderate in the mid levels, note the arctic air still remains over far north central, northeast Washington. It would only take that trough to a bit more to the south to pull that right back down into the Columbia Basin, Bellingham/Everett.
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6z GEFS 500mb Height anomaly. The pattern shown here is real close to the Op run with the trough digging offshore. This could be a very snowy pattern with the trough diving offshore and low level arctic air in place. Could this really be a possibility? .... I suppose. I'd like to see it dig a bit further south. Day 6-16
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If 12z, 18z, 00z runs and EURO show the same 500mb progression Day 4-7 look for Ensembles to get colder and colder. I think the max potential could be 850s -14 to -16c mean temp for PDX-Seattle. We shall see!
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Wow. I have no words. At least right now. Even half of that we would be dancing on the ceiling. Best part is it wouldn't melt for a long time and wow it would make the overnight temps a lot colder than modeled.
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There's the Ensemble improvement I was fairly confident in thinking we'd see, at least in the 'believable' range Day 4-8.. Let's see if the long range keeps it cold too.
