Gradient Keeper
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Posts
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Everything posted by Gradient Keeper
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18z GEFS 500mb Day 7-16. Great signal! If that trough digs just a touch more we're talking real cold! 18z Ensembles. More improvements. I'd like to remove those warmer members. I hope we see that the next few days. Also important to note. Long range the Op was a warm outlier. That is unusual to see the ensemble mean lower that far out. Portland http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattle http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Yakima - Increasing potential for backdoor blast. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png Vancouver BC http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png
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500mb pattern Day 4-7 in the believable time frame moved timing ahead as the previous 4+ runs have. The details with that low on Friday depending on how it's handled is what could delay cold air some.
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Really? 850s compared to 12z Day 8.5 to 11 are COLDER this run for PDX and with strong east winds the arctic air is always deeper than modeled, especially low level. You know better than this.
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December 13th arctic front blasted southward. THEN the fun began! The 21st was the coldest day with PDX 25 F high temp.
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So true.
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That looks real good and intriguing too with that low south of PDX. Hmmm! Definite east winds.
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Ha! I've been reading the Anchorage, Juneau, and Fairbanks AFDs for the past week. 18z GFS in 55 minutes
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Oh ya?
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Yeah without a doubt.
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I just noticed. 12z EPS today has the bitter air mass several notches closer to us. Almost entirely removed from Yukon whereas 00z last night did not. If we continue seeing that trend we'll end up very cold. I think that's what happens too.
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How do you figure not backdoor? Meaning no backdoor cold? Yakima mean temp is -10c to -12c with a lot of members to -20c. I mean it's possible it's only cold onshore flow.
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Great post and comparison. Really good. Exceptional in fact. 00z NAM in 5 hours 54 minutes
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More amplification for sure would be good. It's real close to being great!
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The cold on this frame is spilling south out of Alaska into Yukon, BC, AB. There's very little cold in Alaska just the southeast corner(not panhandle)
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Block axis is around 158-160 W. Perfect
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Are you serious, Eddie? The GEFS 500mb dramatically improved. We do have good ensemble support, but so far only the GFS/GEFS.
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It would be real cold Day 11-13 if we extrapolated. Also, the 00z EPS you posted last night showed a bitter air mass in BC/AB whereas the Op did not. 00z GFS in 8 hours 24 minutes
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I would say so. Yes.
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Remember last night 00z EURO Op was a step behind even this run and the 00z EPS improved. 18z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes
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Need better connection with the arctic ridge, amplification Day 6-7. GFS moved timing ahead. GEFS moved timing ahead and improved noticeably. EURO lagging behind, but almost there.
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Day 9
