Gradient Keeper

Day 7

Day 6

Mark just posted this in my group after seeing my WRF post

Day 5

Funny new wrinkle suddenly on the 00z GFS, FV3, and EURO. Hmmm bummer that trough can't slide a bit further south before carving out we would see a backdoor blast. East winds developing 1 AM Monday on EURO, very much like the WRF. INTERESTING. Yeah, I would like another new trend to blast that upper low off California out of the picture and so the arctic trough doesn't phase with it.

Day 4

Trough oriented more SW to NE. I wonder if it will dig as far southwest as the GFS and allow the flow to turn offshore....

Day 3 Nope

Compared to 00z last night the arctic trough is slightly further southeast.

Day 2

Just a music producer, not an actual DJ.... I created the alias back in 2000 believe it or not and also use Bass Launch. 6z GFS in 3 hours 29 minutes

00z ECMWF Day 1

I am liking the 00z GFS Ensembles, especially The Dalles to Moses Lake which shows potential for prolonged backdoor cold/east winds through Gorge.

00z WRF-GFS Yeah. Might want to check this out. 4 AM Monday. Increasing east wind pulling cold air through the Gorge as a 993mb low stalls near Waldport! Hmmm!

Day 2.5 a notch further south than 18z

Day 2

00z GFS Day 1

Haha, yes I suppose it is.

ICON is snowy! You *******, Hasselhoff!

Yeah, we need a sharper trough S-N oriented axis and stronger Yukon jet punching down into BC to drive it southward instead of stalling near central BC. 00z GFS in 2 minutes

00z ICON though 1 PM Saturday looks the same as previous runs! C'MON Hasselhoff !!!!

Wow yeah. I dozed off, woke up and see 00z NAM is a Winter Cancel for everyone.

1-31-19 3:50 PM Model analysis The good(COLD) vs bad(Not as cold) runs 500mb analysis Days 2-4. Analyzing the 18z ICON, 12z GEM compared to 18z GFS, 18z NAM, 18z FV3, 12z ECMWF. Looking at block position, axis, amplification, configuration, arctic trough positioning, axis, trough axis orientation. ~ Day 2 - One obvious difference is the ICON block is centered a bit further south and a bit less amplification up through Alaska than other models. Not quite as much tilt as well. Other models are fairly similar at this time frame. ~ Day 2.5 - The 'shape' of the Arctic trough in Central British Columbia is more rounded with axis oriented NNE to SSW and punching southward. Other models show the more sharper and less favorable WSW to NE tilt. ~ Day 3 - ICON block is a bit wider and also a bit less amplitude up through Alaska and is centered a bit further east than other models. Due to the width higher heights spread further east and tend to funnel or 'steer' the arctic trough more southward. Trough axis remains more N to S oriented. The GEM also has a bit wider block and centered further east than GFS, ECMWF, NAM, FV3, just not quite as much as ICON. ~ Day 3.5 - Yet again ICON block is much wider with less amplification and not as tilted. This configuration does not allow the arctic trough to carve out off southwestern British Columbia as seen with the GFS, FV3, NAM, ECMWF, and GEM to a bit lesser extent. ~ Day 4 - ICON block remains wider, less amplified. GEM also a bit similar. ICON block also centered 3 degrees in latitude further east. GEM 2. GFS, FV3, NAM, ECMWF a bit sharper block and more tilt. Air mass remains colder with ICON due to lessened over water trajectory and no warm air advection off the milder ocean. Cold air filters south much better. GEM somewhat similar. * My thoughts - It's quite glaring that the colder runs such at the GEM and ICON feature a more 'beefy' block in the Day 2-4 period. This causes the block to spread out a bit more and as the arctic trough moves south-southwestward it buts up against it and holds the trough in place shoving on a more southward track compared to the GFS, FV3, NAM, and ECMWF which dig the arctic air off the BC coast just north of Vancouver Island. If we look for any last second trends it'll be to see other models show a beefier wider block. That's about it. We'll see how models look the next 24 hours. Cautiously optimistic.

Without the Gorge imagine how much worse our climate would be? NO THANKS! 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes

Yeah, that has certainly been the case many times. We're within 66-72 hours of the arctic trough moving into central BC. A lot can change.