Gradient Keeper

18z FV3 (Sober Uncle) 100 miles further west than 12z.

It seems to be a definite trend to progressively and gradually shift the arctic trough further west, but is it the *final* trend and locked in? Might be. Hard to say we have 3-4 model runs to go I feel before details are really nailed down. Also given the arctic trough is only crossing the Yukon border in 24 hours there could be some minor discrepancies in the flow pattern over Northern and Central British Columbia. It depends on the exact position and orientation of the block as well as how the arctic trough phases with the energy off the southern Oregon Coast. It COULD possibly swing back in our favor, but don't get your hopes up. 00z GFS in 5 hours

LMAO Thanks for the laughs everyone. 18z GFS (Super hammered family member that everyone is ashamed of always blowing a .20 or higher on the breathalyzer) Begins in.... 4 minutes (1:27 PM) Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

18z NAM yeah, several notches further west. DO NOT LIKE. Block is 4-5 notches further west with greater amplitude up through Alaska. Hmmm.....

Day 8

4 inches for me. I hope so. Thanks for posting.

Day 7 trying to reload. We'll see if it gets there

Day 6

Day 10+ Canadian ensembles looks REAL NICE

Anyone notice how close that cold lobe is to northeastern Washington at Day 5? Notice how the trough digs a bit further southwest and that cold lobe follows? If that continues on 00z it's going to get real cold at least into the Columbia Basin.

Day 5

The next 2-3 runs are likely to waver a bit on the exact track of arctic trough and low. Hoping the EURO also shows the same reload potential of the 12z GFS, GEM, FV3, ICON? Can't remember. 1 hour sleep and fading.....

Day 4

Day 3

Compared to 12z yesterday the arctic trough is 2 notches further east. There could be a much colder tap of air this run.

You're talking about mesoscale features and 3 days out too. Of course things changed. If it were inside 36 hours it probably would have verified or been close.

Day 2

12z ECMWF Day 1

12z WRF-GFS 4 AM Monday. Arctic air surging down into the Columbia Basin. Remember, this is with the less cold 12z GFS! Imagine the arctic air on the GEM! YEAH!

12z GEFS Definite improvements from 6z Op/GEFS

12z FV3 looks great

More than just chilly air. Another backdoor blast. 516 thickness PDX.

6z GEFS when looking at The Dalles and Moses Lake ensembles also showed modest potential for backdoor cold through the 11th.

Very nice. Both 12z GFS, GEM both have backdoor reloads. Day 6 GEM looks COLD