Gradient Keeper

12z GFS Day 7-8 backdoor shot

12z GFS not great, but better than 6z. 12z GEM is great. The exact track of where the low spins up as the arctic trough digs off southwestern BC is crucial. The next 2-3 days the track may waver a bit here and there.

Day 4 not good

Day 3

Day 2

Day 1.5

12z GFS Day 1

12z ICON looks great and possibly colder

This run basically goes against the GEFS, GEM, EURO, EPS, ICON, FV3, etc... Outlier? Hard to say until 6z GEFS and 12z runs.

Not concerned unless that becomes a trend. I doubt it.

Day 4.5 not as cold as it looks like a few weak lows move up from the south pulling up warmer air at times.

Day 4

Arctic trough progressing southward a notch further east.

Day 3

Day 2 evolving block amplitude a notch stronger

Day 1.5

6z GFS Day 1

PDX thickness 515. Colder run.

Yeah. The initial low develops right near/just off Central Vancouver Island. Ideal trajectory.

ICON looks nice and colder.

We can now watch things developing in real time. IR/WV Imagery shows the initial arctic font looming to our north. I love it when we can watch things develop in front of our eyes rather than needing to rely on models. 6z GFS in 30 minutes

Pretty sure it isn't supposed to be gusting back over 70mph at Vista House again. Total model failure handling the persistent cold pool.

Columbia Basin cold pool update It sure doesn't want to go away anytime soon. Not surprised. It is deepening and expanding yet again. East winds at my location near West Gresham have actually increased a bit and are gusty yet again.