Gradient Keeper

Nearing Day 2 evolving block several notches stronger than 00z

6z NAM Day 1.5 this is different. Ridge merger occurring now, sooner than previous runs.

Nice EPS run Day 4-10!

Solid backdoor cold shot, cold pool, east winds. Nice. I really have to wonder if we might be going into a far more prolonged cold pattern than we previously thought, and again as mentioned if the GFS/WRF-GFS are correct PDX after Monday night will not be moderating with arctic air pouring out of the Gorge. 6z NAM in 39 minutes

Day 9

Day 8 reload? Interesting isn't it how the 00z GFS, GEM all show this Day 8-10 potential reload.

Day 6

Day 5 farthest south yet with the arctic trough

Day 4 block stronger and far more amplified than previous run

00z ECMWF Day 3 block centered a bit further west, and better amplitude.

Check this OUT! for PDX! Tuesday 10 PM. Increasing east winds, weak low just to the west. This would be a backdoor blast and snow! 1 AM Wednesday. BITTER low level cold Gorge east, strong east winds. Wow. IF this plays out temps are going to plummet. I won't even get to 25 where I'm at.

7 AM Tuesday. CHILLY! and what's this. A possible Columbia Basin high developing?

Lol. Just kidding. Yeah best GFS operational run yet by far especially Centralia, Olympia northward. I love the improvements after Day 5.5 very EPS. Day 8+ backdoor cold shot with increasing east winds. It'll be significant colder than modeled Gorge to PDX due to this. Factor in possible snowcover throughout the Gorge and Columbia Basin. 00z GEM very cold, backdoor reload Day 8+. Potential for a much stronger arctic blast. 500mb pattern after Day 6 also follows the EPS. The potential the next 4-8 days is huge. I'm still cautiously optimistic with some confidence increasing. I want to see models hold through Friday 00z. 6z GFS in 4 hours 30 minutes

I just woke up. How were the 00z GFS and GEM? 00z ECMWF in 54 minutes

Did anyone catch the 00z NAM? Day 3.5. Check out that amplification and tilt well up into the high arctic with that bridge/block. Quite a bit better than previous runs.

00z GFS in 3 hours 24 minutes!

1-30-19 2:40 PM [Model Countdown] Next up.... 00z NAM in 3 hours 1 minute (5:41 PM) Later this evening.... 00z GFS in 4 hours 47 minutes (7:27 PM) 00z GEM/CMC in 5 hours 10 minutes (7:50 PM) 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 5 minutes (9:45 PM) Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

We waited ALL Winter for this. Soak it in. Enjoy it. C'MON!!! Cold and SNOW!!!!

18z is nice. Day 3-4 block has a bit more amplitude. Arctic trough digs out a bit more off southwestern BC. Positive trends. Beyond Day 5 I trust the ECMWF/ EPS guidance far more than any GFS Operational run. I put a 45% chance at models coming around to the EPS with a colder solution showing for a week+. Jim should be thrilled! 00z ECMWF in 7 hours 19 minutes

No problem. Yeah could be around -10c. I want that GEM with the -17c 850s over PDX! WOW. Don't entirely rule that out. Not expecting it, but it's still possible we see a certifiable blast. 00z NAM in 4 hours 1 minute

500mb Analysis Days 2-5. Previous 4 runs of the ECMWF, GEM and past 8 runs of the GFS. - 500mb Height anomalies, Heights over Southwestern Alaska, Block amplitude, amplification up through Alaska, tilt, Energy in Bering Sea. ~ At Day 2 ridge at 156 W amplitude over Southwestern Alaska increased with heights on average 5 dam higher with all model. Aleutian ridge a notch closer to a full merge a touch sooner. Energy in Bering Sea handled similarly on all models. ~ At Day 3 Ridge merger around 8 PM Friday. GEM, ECMWF very similar with amplitude/strength of evolving block. GFS slightly less amplitude. GEM more consistent with amplification through Alaska. All models show improved tilt, the ridge becoming more 'beefy' in width over mainland Alaska, and improved cross polar flow. ~ Day 4 Block centered at 158 W slightly backed off to the west. Block strengthening past 4 runs most notably on the GEM, ECMWF. Energy off Siberia holding back further in the Bering Sea instead of brushing into Western Alaska. ~ Day 5 Energy transitioning from Eastern, Central Aleutians backing off towards the Western Bering Sea. ECMWF block axis shifts from 144 W back to 154 W and strengthens each run. GEM strongest amplitude, block shifts slightly further west past 4 runs. GFS features flattest ridge, less amplification up through Western Alaska. *My thoughts: Overall trends is to strengthen the block Days 2-4, increase heights over southwestern Alaska, increase amplification up through mainland Alaska, and Days 4-5 shunt the energy off Siberia further back into the Western Bering Sea. In my opinion the GEM has slightly handled the pattern better Days 3-5 with the EURO in agreement. GFS is a step behind. IF this trend continues we may see colder runs ahead. There is also the chance for a mega block after Day 7. 18z GFS (Heavily intoxicated Uncle) in 4 minutes Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄ ❄ ☃ ❄ ❄

Unfortunately only that brief 2 day cold shot with a chance of light snow(PDX). I am hoping east winds develop after Day 7. BUT if I'm right and we see a trend each run for improved amplitude of the Aleutian ridge Day 3-4, that could change.

Day 6, 850s BIG difference Compared to 00z

Day 5.5 850s Compared to 00z