Gradient Keeper

Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

Day 9 and very surprised to see this run is mirroring the GFS Op tonight. Only the CMC doesn't show this system moving in from the southwest cutting into the block. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/216/500h_anom.na.png

There's a chance my nightly play-by-play is jinxing things. I won't be here or awake for 6z, so maybe things take a sudden turn for the better by 2:30 AM.

Day 8 NOPE http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/192/500h_anom.na.png

Doing the absolute best I can without resorting to silly wishcasting.

Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/168/500h_anom.na.png

Kamchatka Bomb? or does it track into the Aleutians...

Day 6 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/144/500h_anom.na.png

Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/120/500h_anom.na.png

I agree I see some signs of that too. Cautiously optimistic

Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/096/500h_anom.na.png

Day 3 Beastly looking block http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/072/500h_anom.na.png

00z ECMWF Day 2 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/048/500h_anom.na.png

Very exciting times ahead for those in Moses Lake to Hermiston.

We're transitioning into perhaps the longest cold pool and east wind episode in a long, long time.

00z GEFS through day 12 sure looks like a barrel of fun, or barrel of monkeys, or barrel of fun monkeys.... 00z ECMWF in 23 minutes!

Well, that was fun, said no one ever. 00z ECMWF in 42 minutes!

Yep, exactly.

00z CMC Some retrogression Day 7 Day 10

Sure, through about day 6, then afterwards solutions diverge, but there are clear differences with the overall 500mb pattern, energy moving off Asia, trough placement extending south of Aleutians, how far east to 140 W line systems spin up, block amplification, how far the axis is pushed eastward, and displacement of Greenland Block.

Day 11 for no reason, but that eastern trough and arctic air is shifting due west and very quickly. Pretty weird. Never makes it of course. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120400/276/500h_anom.na.png

Basically no model agreement after day 6 I'd say. Anything could happen. Westerlies breaking through, Block breaking down slightly or reorganizing a few times, or perhaps retrogression.

00z GFS Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

00z CMC nothing like the GFS. Block much stronger and no little cut-off system moving in from the southwest.

Day 9 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120400/216/500h_anom.na.png