Gradient Keeper

Yeah some wonky stuff with southern stream energy and little to no ridge. Total outlier.

00z GEFS no changes and definitely does not agree with the Op run tonight. I knew it would not. GEFS keeps the ridge axis offshore and after day 10 some hints of retrogression.

00z GFS progression is wacky. Not buying it. 00z CMC much different and similar to previous CMC/ECMWF runs. I do agree with your assessment for retrogression.

Konaaaaaaaaaaa!

00z GFS in 3 hours 32 minutes!

11/27/17 Teleconnection Indices forecast Bleh. NOPE!

Ya. The likely outcome will be a rather extensive cold pool and east winds. Still better than mild SW flow with no blocking. I think retrogression is possible, but I would lean towards the block breaking down and W-SW jet slamming us. 12z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes

6z GFS Extracted Data for Moses Lake. Yep, check out the extended period. That's pretty much a modified arctic air mass with highs in the 20s. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2017112706&text=KMWH I wonder if there will be any improvement on the ensembles. I hope so. We'll know in 5-10 minutes.

Ridge just stops at 135 W. Very chilly run, especially Gorge east with a fairly deep cold pool compared to previous runs.

Pretty big changes on 6z. Ridge through day 8 is not shoved as far east and seems to be building at 140 W. Hmmm... Model comparison Day 8 - 00z last night http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112700/192/500h_anom.na.png Day 8 - 6z http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112706/192/500h_anom.na.png

Step one? How many steps does it take? Is it a 12-step program? I'm a Snow-a-holic and I NEED MY D**n SNOW.... I'm getting withdrawal symptoms. I've been looking at Winter pics in the group and I get the shakes and jitters. WHEN !!!!

That's about when I think models will flip and look rather interesting.

Yup. It's coming! We just have be patient for another 10-14 days. 00z EPS in 40 minutes 6z GFS in 1 hour 39 minutes

Day 10 Extensive cold pool and east winds on this run. Columbia Basin/Gorge very chilly. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112700/240/500h_anom.na.png

Crapsicles Day 9 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112700/216/500h_anom.na.png

Day 8 Ridge might have put the brakes on right there. That energy may form cut-off low become a kona. Let's see... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112700/192/500h_anom.na.png

00z ECMWF Day 5 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112700/120/500h_anom.na.png Day 7 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112700/168/500h_anom.na.png

Ensemble show High Temps for Columbia Basin are near or below freezing and dewpoints in the 20s for a week or longer. I will welcome that. THEN maybe sometime late in the week 2 period retrogression. Some optimism for that.

Yeah, well we don't wanna wait that long!

Funky looking. Ya, not yet.

Greenland Block retrograded too

Kona low too

00z GFS Hmmmm day 7-8 ridge shoved east to 132-130 W, but day 8, 9, 10 strengthening, amplifying and it slightly built west-northwestward to 135-137 W nosing back to 145-140 W. 500mb progression for the entire pattern looks a little odd. Bit of retrogression too. Day 8 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112700/192/500h_anom.na.png Day 9 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112700/216/500h_anom.na.png Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017112700/240/500h_anom.na.png

18z GEFS Surface Temp/Dewpoint ensembles for Yakima and Moses Lake. Strong cold pool signature with temps near or just below freezing indicated(high temps). Dewpoints well below freezing. This persists for 7-8 days.