OKwx2k4
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Everything posted by OKwx2k4
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The video is great. Those are excellent explanations for our unusual pattern. I have been confused as well on our pattern and why in a full El Nino we are struggling. It's pretty anomalous on a national scale, to say the least. Some stuff, no matter how hard you try or good you are, you can't call it.
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Nasty hot weather for the next couple of days in Texas. Oklahoma and Arkansas look variable over the same span. Hoping that at things get really cranking with the heat, we get a good cold front right down the middle.
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Yeah. I picked up some hail and damaging winds. Lots of trees damaged. Some blown over completely. Was a wild night.
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Global climate flip. At least where I'm observing or my opinion. Temporary or multidecadal is my question.
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Here's a side-by-side of 2009 and today that are more comparable than the two i posted in a previous post.
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Great write-up there. The US being surrounded by cold water this year and in the Baja region are majorly different, along with the orientation of the warming in the N.Pac. These are and will be important factors going forward. Anomalous and massive warm pooling in the NE Pac is also absent. These point to a cooler long-term and an upcoming reversal of our "heat over the heartland" setup. The Atlantic is in full Niño suppression mode, too. Doesn't matter how much heat you're working with in a suppressed/high shear environment, you can't make a hurricane that way. Phil pointed out some excellent stuff also. Very excellent. Only disagreement i have (and absolutely could be wrong) is that in comparing 2009 to this one, we didn't see a Modoki style setup at first. 1.2 wasn't as warm though and that may be the difference-maker.
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Later in the run today.... This quickly transitions north and east. Not looking forward to it but hoping it is squashed soon after.
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That's a pretty good sized enhanced risk area. By the end of latest GFS run, Andie and myself may have a rainfall contest. Bad news is that part of it comes from a hurricane. Storming at my place now. Fun stuff.
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Little two week blast of heat before June closes. Will feel pretty summerlike after all these storms pass. By the drought map posted in another post above, the rain is right on time. Short-term surface drought conditions are in effect.
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A quick look at the El Niño/La Niña Intensities and years would lead me to believe that negative/neutral or weak Niña episodes actually produce more icing events. This is likely due to the cold air source location in La Niña winters and the cold layer of our atmosphere being more shallow or less dense. La Niña doesn't often trigger an upstream blocking episode to contain the deep cold over our continent or Canada. I think this is right. May check me on it. I know 2010 and 11s blocking episodes were anomalous. Those were post-Nino, but in a La Niña that made the whole Pacific cold, if i recall it rightly.
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Been my experience that ice events either precede or follow Niños. Ice storms here in 1999, 2000 and 2001, then January 2009 are pretty major ones from memory. (My opinion...)They are hard to look up because their effects, if not in a large city, are recounted, documented by locals who went through them but not so much by the areas around them. There's a YouTube video of NWA and Northeast Oklahoma and my hometown in Jsnuary 2009s (winter 2008-09) ice storm. Its pretty wild stuff. It was scary. I remember reading an ice storm study that looked at tree rings to determine which years saw ice events and their effects. Other than that, i don't know of much to find on the topic.
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Mini Katrina. Well.... Its never good to see a left turning tropical cyclone/hurricane. Would fit part of my summer predictions, though, if it came true.
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I'm wondering if it really makes sense that all models are totally reversing this pattern in the 10-15 day ranges, putting a huge ridge in its place across the heartland and up through the lakes. I don't know if I can agree with them just yet. We'll see. I'm truly glad to see precipitation in any form on the drought regions.
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Well, I'm noticing that the eastern flank of Niño has really spiked the last few days, too. I hope this fades and becomes central based as we go, but I could be wrong. I definitely do not downplay the significance of our massive rainfall deficit region either. More than anomalous would be a great way to put it.
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Yeah. 2009-10 was the prettiest winter in a long time for many people. That whole late summer, autumn and winter were awesome weather it seemed like.
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Its a very marked pattern difference in the two. My theory is that in Modoki, the southern branch has less heat but retains the moisture load allowing for slower moving large storms and more precip in our area. The last Modoki was in 2009-10, I think. By the time a major Niño or East-based Niños hotbox Pacific influence on our atmosphere wanes, if the Pacific is in agreeing pdo phase, it's usually very late into the winter before we see snowfall.
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100 percent correct.
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In our area, humid moist in summer BUT cool, dry autumn then cold, wet, snowy in winter. In extreme + Nino episodes with a huge positive pdo signature, it's like the tropics invaded us. Pacific air flooding us for days. In a weaker, more moderate or central Pacific Niño (Modoki), the southern branch can't continually pull hot air off and we see a year like 2009-10 happen. Extreme or very weak Nino episodes are pretty much in the equal chances category. N.Pac ocean temps are a huge part of this equation as well. That's one that has been debated since the great warm pool of 2013-14 and part of '15, known as "the blob" for a time.
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This is awesome research and also an interesting trend over the last two decades. I wonder if this is a pattern that will reverse over the coming years or grow. Seems likely that eventually it would shift or reverse altogether at some point, in my opinion.
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76-77 and 77-78 were the twin weak-mod Niño episodes that marked the great climate shift. I'll have an order of 77 with a side of 1995. With a 2009 as a cherry on the top. I find it remarkable that we talked a few times about the end of last year and beginning of this one about 2008-09 and things are still really tracking in that way...In my opinion anyway.
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It looks to continue reloading for the forseeable future, too. Split-flow for days across the Pacific.
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Thrilled to see precip currectly traversing the stack of central states this evening and tonight!
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If enso peaks by October, you will very likely get your wish.
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A little more info.... We are very nearly at the tri-monthly threshold to make it official. Although heat is surfacing in the east at a rapid rate, it has no depth to supply it...(last image). Lastly, looky at this forecast....(next image). Sorry they're out of order. They didn't post correctly.
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Also at this... Tom wrote: "Oh, I'd also be stoked to see the NE PAC warm and hug the coastline in NW NAMER...we haven't had this type of patter for 3 or more years from all the Nina's and a dominant N PAC flow. Maybe nature is shaking things up this year???" can you say "near permanent Aleutian Low"? Yes please! I'm going to get excited if I don't stop. Lol. That's a southern branch monsters setup if I ever saw it with a delivery path right through my house. All the fuel storms need on the Pac with a reserve in the GzoM. Awesome stuff!! Alsi, when the oceans warm in a certain pattern, it causes a warm ocean/cold continents pattern or positive TNH pattern. May last two decades, may last two years, but I'll put everything I have on the belief that we witnessed a dual-hemispheric climate shift.
