OKwx2k4

Post what the model showed that day. Lol.

I get flooding rains. :-(

Not sure what's going on there. That's a heck of a snowstorm in NM and Texas though.

Beautiful pictures.

I definitely agree Tom. The progression here is great for what we have been saying since around the first part of November. Then as things work their way along we see the southern storm track open up for lots of traffic with -8c departures locked in over the central US. These will moderate by mid-month of course but the AO should be split by then and we'll be looking at another cold shot with storms underneath by the latter weeks of December. Should be pretty much full on game time for my area by then. :-) @gosaints, I think I will have the greatest negative departures of everyone because I'm essentially in left field compared to where most of you guys live but by no means do I think I'm the only one with a chance at being below normal. That ridge showing up over western Canada will retrograde at some point. Although it is one heck of a ridge showing up for an ensemble mean.

Dang. If I were only 400 miles further west. Lol

That's correct Tom. Even the most conservative models have zero warm teleconnections. Couple that with a pretty decent chance of a fairly large AO drop in the next month, Aleutian low developing then retrograding west and you have a pretty good idea what's coming. Not at all interested in ripping anyone but we all know what the CFS is. Just like I know what the NASA model is. CFS will have its act together by the 11th of December and the NASA is likely too cold.

Bingo! Couldn't have drawn it up any better if I tried. I may have December too warm in my forecast. I don't like being wrong though even if it's turned to something better than I hoped for.

Images didn't post but I've seen it in another place. Some folks should enjoy what warmer than average days they have coming up.

That's beautiful man.

Yeah. Around the Dec 15th or so is usually almost always guaranteed to at least record some snow. I'm trying to rush things a little too fast. Lot of interesting things going on down the road though so I shouldn't be worried about it too much.

Dang GGEM is so close to me yet so far. :-( When the PV tanks things will get fun for me from mid-late December on though.

Congrats on all the great snow everyone!

Tom, your post above totally agrees with several things I have been saying and thinking for quite awhile. When the PV dislodges in late December, this winter will be a whole different beast than what many think. Glad to see verification there.

Euro says no snow for Oklahoma.

Either the 12z GFS is on crack or I'm going to surpass my all time November snowfall friday. Lol. Which will it be? The precip is almost 100 percent guaranteed so we'll have to see if the cold works out.

Lol. Yeah. We already had that discussion. The reason I commented on the CFS look there though is because it actually looks quite plausible. Extend a line of below normal on up the spine of the Rockies into western Canada and over into the western areas of the Plains a little bit and I really think you have the best look for what is going to happen.

I'm pretty content with the pattern overall. CFS is really a trend observation type model so seeing the trend there is pretty good. By December 10th it will have December figured out. Lol. It spits out alarming amounts of snow for such a warm model though.

Yeah. I'm going against most of it. I think most of eastern US will be just fine in the precip category.

That's a nice map.

Yeah. It's really odd that the pattern continues to resemble December 2009 also. (Euro weeklies) Cool in the northwest and average to slightly above in the Northeast. We'll see if this changes in about 2 weeks.

That's a beautiful setup there if you're me. Lol. Sorry everyone else! :-) jk

I don't really want "blasting" cold either honestly. Hard to make snow when the STJ is suppressed clear to Brownsville, TX. Lol

Lol. I read that in that guy's voice. Haha.

Cold shots are back on this run of the GFS to close out November.