OKwx2k4

Hmmm... sounds like all the models are almost in perfect agreement on the teleconnections. May be looking at a more Arklatex or Red River type low during Thanksgiving week. Bears watching to see if these storms in the later periods show a dramatic shift south at least. I saw last night where ENSO forcing is forecast to retreat back to the dateline and stay put for all of DJF. That, coupled with a -AO/-NAO, neutral PNA and a weak SE ridge is almost like playing with a stacked deck here in the Ozarks. :-)

I hope y'all get hammered up there. That is a beautiful camera right there.

GFS providing another interesting take on the outcome of the fantasy portion at 06z. Brings storms through in much the same manner as before but appears to show them as "phasing" type storms. Considering I figure it will be more into the mature portion of the winter before we see the classic types of cutoffs, this is an option to consider for the early parts of the season as things ramp up.

Anyone curious as to my location since I'm sort of the oddball here, I'm 3 counties south of KS and right on the AR state line. That will give everyone better reference to my location. I'm 42 miles due west of Fayetteville, AR so I use them for my weather data although they only go back to 1950. I use Tulsa for NWS data pre 1950 or old hand written COOP data I have archived back to the 40s.

I definitely agree with you on the last statement. I was just pointing out the weird years he used to come to the conclusions he did. As far as the LRC is concerned, I'm crossing my fingers that it works out. It sort of worked out last year. That euro anomalies map looks like a DJF composite of 2009-10 only shifted west. That could repeat as many times as it wants.

Guy is definitely a mystery to me. Picked 2 of the worst winters I have ever had in my lifetime as analogs and gives very odd logic to back them up.

Thank you everyone for the awesome contributions. Good stuff!

I'm game. I think it would be fun.

That's not just a bomb, it's a NUKE. Lol. I'm sure it will be gone tomorrow but the GFS is definitely trying to resolve something around that time frame.

It would be one of the most different analog sets used for this year for sure. Be interesting to see how he correlates them to this year.

Nice little thunderstorm complex moving through down here. Thunder in November is supposed to mean a cold winter. :-)

So, looking at the CFS version of our teleconnections and MJO currently and going forward this morning. MJO is currently rolling through some warmer phases, however it is forecast to go back into the "circle of death" around the 1st-5th of December. The AO is positive and is forecast to stay that way until the 17th or so of this month when it dips negative for a time then goes into a more fluctuating pattern before going negative sometime around Christmas to New Years. Been a trend for a little while on there. (Even though it is the CFS it gets points for some consistency.) The NAO follows a very similar trend to the AO in that it tanks around New Years. All of these values right now lead me to believe that we will see an entirely different weather pattern after Thanksgiving and that by mid-late December/January we'll be pretty much in a whole different world. Especially if the MJO comes out of the COD into phase 8 or 1. I'm open to correction on any of this if I'm incorrect, but this is the best explanation in my mind as to why things are the way they are right now and the possible outcome as the pattern transitions further.

This is a part of the equation that I'm struggling to learn about. Definitely could be a viable explanation for why the AO never went negative last year even though SAI said it should have.

I agree. All the cards are pretty much dealt. Just have to get the AO into negative territory or at least neutral. I know that's what the theory says it does but not too sure after last year.

Nice. I'm thinking that this is the last push for 1.2. Think we see 3 and 3.4 warm a bit more or hold there.

That's really crazy that you all up there are warmer than I am all the way down here.

Yeah. It's sad that I'm going to have to mow again so all my snow this winter doesn't have grass sticking up through it making my yard ugly. Lol. Maybe still on track for a frost the 8th according to Tulsa NWS. Here's to hoping. I read this morning that the final Siberian snow cover total for week 44 was 3rd all time so we have that going for us all who love snow.

Been foggy here 5 of the last 7 days. I'll take a Christmas to New Years week of snow. :-)

Definitely agree. Also, funny you mention deer also. Nephew killed a buck that literally was caped in fat. Some places were almost an inch thick on this thing! Thought it was quite odd. Trees are also holding their leaves for a long time this year. (The ones that didn't get eaten by the worms anyway.) Still have some that are green which I find unusual as well. Time will tell if these mean anything or not. I sure am glad I picked loving the weather of all things. It teaches me something new every year.

This is not the first unprovoked similarity I have heard to that year. It's getting pretty eerie now. Lol. Similar but different story here but this one happened over a month ago. I posted a random question to some friends on Facebook about the absolutely huge number of webworms we had all over the trees. There were so many it looked like Halloween decorations all over the place. A friend messages me back and said she asked her mother that question and that she said the old timers always said a very bad winter was coming. When asked the last year she saw this many.....1977. Asked a few more people that I knew would remember that year without providing a clue as to what I was getting at and ALL the answers were or pertained directly to 1977. I don't often share stuff like this on an online forum amongst folks to be criticized but I found it to be either an incredible coincidence or a natural sign of the winter season to come. It's not exactly science but I do believe that the old timers had ways of knowing some things about the weather and seasons to come. Guess we will see if they are right or not.

Hey Tom, any thoughts on when we possibly see some wave 1 activity get underway? I don't really know much about how that stuff works, just what it does.

Welcome! I'm the only poster here from Oklahoma I think. Lol.

Nice! Keep talking like that and you're going to make me buy my WxBell subscription back. Lol. @Gosaints, I understand where you come from there. We're in different camps so to speak. You do cold and dry with ease up there while I can see near 70 and/or rain in almost every month of the year down here. I imagine if roles were reversed I may possibly feel the same way.

I was only joking.

That the warmest map you could find? Lol :-)