TheNewCulverJosh

Yep, looks like it gives us the goods this weekend and the Sound gets it early next week.....win/win if it is on to something.

Every option is still on the table. Mark and Steve, if they are lurking, are probably laughing. The most recent model is always the correct model. The doomsday scenarios, the weenie-ness of it all. It is going to do what it is going to do. In my decades of following weather I have never seen a low make landfall as far north as some of you think, with this pattern. Too much suppression and way too much cold air feeding in for that to happen. If it makes landfall anywhere north of Lincoln City then I would be amazed.

With the delay I would say they bypass that and go straight to an advisory or warning. I would expect my watch to become a warning by this evening, overnight at the latest.

Split that right down the center and I would be happy. I am going to be golden no matter what, I just want the members here in the central and south valley to get in on the action.

Thank you, that has regionwide from Wilsonville north written all over it.

Can you post the couple frames before that one?

You can definitely see the warm push in the valley but I think it is underdoing the CAA that will occur once the low has weakened and comes ashore to the south of Northern Wilamette Valley.

Like I said before, there is no way the low goes that far north. It is going to get to a certain point and hit the wall. Most likely scenario is it makes it to the mouth of the Columbia then stalls and turns SE.....

Our little friend is developing around 150w/20n currently.

Easy to see on this satellite. Low level trough carving out off of Vancouver Island.......should clear out fairly nice overnight into tomorrow until the approaching front heads north and is shunted due east......cloud tops should explode as the 2 airmasses converge. Perfect setup for most of the area IMO. https://atmos.uw.edu/current-weather/northwest-ir-satellite/

All you late risers just made a whole 2 pages of weenie posts......this place sometimes.

There is absolutely no way the low goes that far north. Jet suppression is very evident on satellite. That goofus model can say whatever it wants. I trust what my eyes are seeing more than that computer.

You're in a good spot.

33-36 degree rain to start for most areas away from the gorge, but I would expect the changeover to occur within 4-5 hours of precipitation commmencing. Most likely some pockets of heavy snow all the way down to Woodburn or so, more focused west of I-5, my best guess. Places like Molalla, Canby, Oregon City, etc....may get the shaft once again.

The Euro is horrible in upslope situations, I just don't think the model sees it. GFS does a little better job with it but still pretty poor. I will say it again, someone in a populated area is going to get 20" with this system.........perhaps Bend? Maybe the West Hills of PDX? Somewhere in Clark County?? This is going to be dynamic, probably the most dynamic since Jan 10, 2017 in PDX, but I think this will surpass that event because of how widespread it will be. BUCKLE UP!!!!

Looks a winter storm watch was issued overnight for here, most likely to be changed to a warning by this evening I would think.

The arctic front never makes it west of the Cascades. Anything in the valley is purely from the gorge. What the posters on here like to call a backdoor event.

Pendleton AFD hinted at a second surge of moisture/deformation band forming on Friday somewhere between the arctic boundary and the departing low from Thursday.

Oh, the snow/ice conundrum in PDX. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2021/02/08/update-on-late-week-snow-ice-possibilities/

Avatars not withstanding.

I think your area will be the big winner in the PDX metro area.

What's your elevation? Requiem? Edit: I mean K12...

That is exactly what it was........I believe it's a "he", and he would be around 21 now?

I forgot, Requiem is that kid in the West Hills??? What did his name used to be?

Someone outside of the Cascades gets 20" by Saturday.