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SilverFallsAndrew

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Everything posted by SilverFallsAndrew

  1. SilverFallsAndrew
    2013 was the driest year on record at Salem. Pretty amazing since September 2013 blew away the previous record for wettest September.
  2. SilverFallsAndrew
    You hate those prospects that much?!
  3. SilverFallsAndrew
    Everything is pointing towards a December BLAST.
  4. SilverFallsAndrew
    Down to 42 already. A somewhat mild high of 54.
  5. SilverFallsAndrew
    Honestly I was really stunned the Santiam Park Fire burned almost 200 acres the other day. Usually even in the summer the vegetation in the Cascade Foothills is still pretty green and fires burn slowly. The fire in the state park near me only burned about 30-40 acres last summer. That one was from a lightning strike during the June thunderstorms that flared up during the mid-July heatwave. They conduct massive field burns up here in late August and early September though, they only do those on days when winds are calm.
  6. SilverFallsAndrew
    Looks like a lot of 55/28 type days up here.
  7. SilverFallsAndrew
    Actually it doesn't. I never said we likely going to have a wet spring. Just said I wasn't panicking yet and the next 1-2 weeks look to have near normal to slightly below normal temps and potentially a lot of frosty nights. And that a wet/cool June could prevent a bad fire season. Tim was the one saying a dry March = wet May/June.
  8. SilverFallsAndrew
    Quickly browsing the numbers in my area you are right. Typically a dry March has been followed by drier than normal weather through the remainder of the spring. As much as 75-80% of the time...So the correlation between a dry March and dry spring is pretty strong. Last March was a top 10 dry March here, We rebounded with slightly above average precip in April, but the 2nd half of April was dry and then we had the 2nd driest May on record. 2013 was an exception though, a dry March was followed by a near average April and extremely wet May.
  9. SilverFallsAndrew
    It is now!
  10. SilverFallsAndrew
    I sense a Jim vs. Jesse battle brewing!
  11. SilverFallsAndrew
    Looking at this is soothing no matter the season...
  12. SilverFallsAndrew
    First week of April looking dry and very chilly on the 12z GFS.
  13. SilverFallsAndrew
    Daily temp departures for March 22nd. Eugene -3 Salem -3 Portland -1
  14. SilverFallsAndrew
    We just had a very warm week. But looking at the models the weather over the next 1-2 weeks looks average to below average. Not a lot of precip, but what does fall should be snow above about 4,000' and down to as low as 2,000 at times. Snow pack in the Willamette Basin as of this morning is 108% of average. In the John Day basin it is 152% of average, 121% Klamath basin, 111% Rogue basin. Moisture will be focused into SW Oregon this week so those numbers should hold or even improve. Shouldn't be much melting further north in the mountains this week as temps will be coolish. Yeah if we have a May 2018 repeat things could get bad. But if we have normal to slightly below normal conditions followed by a wet June we should be good to go. If we can bring in a cool wet front around Labor day to finish off the season even better. As we saw last year it doesn't take much to end fire season, just something.
  15. SilverFallsAndrew
    A very chilly upper level airmass settles in next weekend on the 12z.
  16. SilverFallsAndrew
    I have the same concerns. I just am not ready to hit the panic button yet. I had hoped March would have turned out wetter. ,However, when I looked at past years with extended cold in late February and early March, many if not most of them had a period of record/near record warmth a couple weeks later.
  17. SilverFallsAndrew
    I bet Jim is salivating at the last few GFS runs.
  18. SilverFallsAndrew
    If we get a wet/cool June we will be golden.
  19. SilverFallsAndrew
    We'll have to see how it plays out. I was looking at March 2017 yesterday and that was an extremely wet month. Over 17" of rain up here. And that obviously had no bearing on the fire season either.
  20. SilverFallsAndrew
    About 1.95" of precip here this month. Over half of it fell as snow. A lot of snow melt this past week and half though and still snow melting in the shade so its pretty damp and the ground is pretty soft. But about 5" below normal on precip this month so far. February was pretty wet though. February in Central Oregon was one of the wettest on record.
  21. SilverFallsAndrew
    People are really overreacting to the March fires... They mean nothing in terms of our upcoming fire season and were caused by a very unique set of conditions. I could drop napalm on my backyard today and it wouldn't ignite.
  22. SilverFallsAndrew
    Ended up with 0.39" of rain yesterday. 51/35. Currently 44 after a low of 39. Skies are mostly clear.
  23. SilverFallsAndrew
    I've usually mowed once or twice by now so its not surprising. Plus we just had 3-4 days in the 60s up here which really gets it going. Everything is 2-3 weeks behind even after the warm weather. It makes sense your area isn't as behind as the cold/snow has been focused further south since about February 11th.
  24. SilverFallsAndrew
    The 06z was actually pretty dry. A wet day on Monday and then just scattered showers at times for the next week with some dry days. Probably some nice days, especially mornings and likely some frosts.
  25. SilverFallsAndrew
    Since emerging Monday or Tuesday my front lawn first greened up considerably and is no growing at a rapid pace. I will probably have to mow by the end of next week.
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