SilverFallsAndrew

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

The EPS pretty much agrees completely with the operational.

Whenever I post them people just ***** about not being able to see them. Sorry. The area between Port Angeles and Port Townsend gets absolutely HAMMERED Monday/Tuesday with snow.

EURO shows a high of 26 at BLI next Tuesday.

Seattle metro at the lower elevations has about 3-5" it looks like. I'll pull the northern map to see those areas.

EURO very clearly shows the snow levels plunging to about 1000' by 10pm Sunday night and to the valley floors by Monday morning. It looks like some kind of energy comes through Tuesday morning too which would be all snow to the valley floors. Then Thursday the "reload" comes in which is pretty good for snow north of Portland and about 1-2" for PDX with about 1" or so from Albany north. Total snow up at my place looks to be around 10-12" throughout the period with no more than 3-4" with each event. Sort of reminiscent of last February, except maybe slightly cooler because its earlier in the season. Total snow for NW Oregon metro areas. PDX 2-4" SLE: 1-3" EUG: 1-3"

EURO showing quite a few low 20s in the Willamette Valley Monday-Wednesday for lows.

Sunday could be one of those days where the temp drops slowly from midnight on.

EURO showing highs in the low 40s Sunday Salem-PDX, upper 40s for EUG. Then highs about 35-40 Monday-Thursday. In Puget Sound it looks like low 40s Sunday. Low to mid 30s Monday-Wednesday! And upper 30s Thursday!

For some reason February 1985 keeps popping into my head. I know that was a Nina, and a different setup with coast to coast cold, but from an observed weather stand point we might have a chance at something like that.

Good to see some valley locales at or well below freezing this morning on what should be a pretty warm day. SLE warming quick, but hit freezing overnight at least. EUG still stuck in the fog so that one might be one to watch.

If I get an inch or two I won't complain.

The GFS ensemble improvement is pretty striking.

Looks like a good convergence zone. Valleys get shadowed probably nice in the foothills down here.

WOWzers. Glad I paid for this in flight WiFi!

So you are saying we can't even blame this shitty winter on El Nino now? The hits keep coming.

It might hold together as it is mainly missing us to the east.

Poor Jim.

Here comes splitting worthless trough #3

The GEM and GFS are not even close to anything interesting. It's amazing how good the GFS and its ensembles were trending and how quickly the totally did an about face. I guess we should have expected it, but a continuation of the same split flow pattern which has been dominant is almost a given now. Maybe some snow at the passes, yay.

Hour 72 and you can already tell its going to be a dud in the realistic range. Problem is the initial trough is baggy and splitty. Easy to see the difference when comparing to the good runs.

Totally lost the ICON now.

12z running now!

06z ensembles were slightly better than the 00z ones.

At least the mountains could get snow.