SilverFallsAndrew

A couple near misses on the 00z. Then if we extrapolate out from hour 384

We moved to Salem/Silverton in 1989 so that through really 1996 was a pretty good period even down here...Then things went haywire.

The most astonishing stat is SLE went 23 years (1990-2013) without recording a single digit low. That was typically about a once every 5-7 year occurrence before then.

However highs lower than my random demarcation line of 24 degrees were much more common. I posted the two dates since 1990 at SLE, here are the 17 dates in the similar time period prior. 2/4/89 2/3/89 2/2/89 12/1/85 12/22/83 1/1/79 12/31/78 12/10/72 12/9/72 12/8/72 12/7/72 12/6/72 1/28/69 1/25/69 12/30/68 12/18/64 12/17/64

Just miss a backdoor blast on day 10/11 on the 00z and then another one later in the run. Then I get slammed with this on my daughters birthday in Tulsa.

Yes, that 1963-1990 period was a really good winter period though. So that is kind of comparing the present era to a high water mark. Also I believe EUG and PDX had highs of 24 or lower in February 2014.

Crunched some numbers for SLE. Highs of 24 or lower January 1963-December 1990: 22 January 1991-Present: 2

Here is a fun stat if we are going to bring up December 1990. SLE had 5 highs of 24 or lower (Counting the secondary blast later in the month.). 12/20: 18 12/21: 18 12/22: 21 12/23: 24 12/29: 24 In the 28+ years since then 12/21/98: 22 1/5/04: 24 Totally nuts...

Point taken. Listing the house tomorrow.

Down to 31. Upper 20s looking likely again tonight.

What if I want to protest cops for shooting an adult who pulled a gun at a school? Seems like the ONLY place to move!

There were a few patches here and there, but essentially none. I would imagine Mary's Peak doesn't get the type of snowpack you would see at a similar elevation in the Cascades as it is a bit more impacted by the effects of the Pacific.

Down to 34. At least it seems like winter.

Beautiful.

As promised Mary's Peak This is Mt. Jefferson in the distance. Three Sisters with Mt. Bachelor to the south. My daughter and Mt. Hood in the distance. Beazell Memorial Forest near Kings Valley. Was much cooler down here at about 600' in a calm protected valley. Fort Hoskins

Not again FV3

No you can't see over the Cascades, Mary's peak is only a little over 4,000' feet tall.

Went to Mary's Peak west of Corvallis yesterday. Was incredibly beautiful. Not packed at all, but a steady stream of people taking the rare opportunity to drive to the top of the 4,097' peak in the dead of winter. Unbelievable views of the Willamette Valley and Cascades from Diamond Peak north to Mt. Rainier.

I have been working in the yard in shorts too... Looks like I hit 41 earlier.

This run goes nowhere.

Yeah, the pattern has some promise, but the real cold air is MUCH further east.

18z is going a different direction...Can't tell quite what yet though.

I'm reading that you are saying it is extremely unlikely, I agree. Anything is possible, and so I keep paying attention to the models, but the chances are pretty low. Also I think some are saying discount climo because this winter did not have the early season cold snap as 91-92 or 02-03. You are saying, follow dud winter climo. This one reminds me more of 04-05.

Inland Empire.

What's probably most likely is some cold air dumping east of the Cascades and some brisk 48/27 type days in early February.