SilverFallsAndrew

Coldest ensemble mean yet. The operational is kind of a cold outlier, but there are actually several members that get as cold or colder a couple days earlier!

The overrunning event was like a week and a half after the arctic blast...

I bet the gorge gets nailed next winter lol

Somewhere in Oregon gets nailed again...But at least maybe there will be overrunning this time at the end.

Oregon or Washington?

You know the thing about the 12z is that the actual evolution that leads to the arctic outbreak is in the believable range and the arctic front itself is within 10 days. Details will flucuate wildly of course, but it looks like we could be moving toward something good.

I know, I just thought there might be a little more palpable excitement.

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

I'm not going to lie, the 12z GFS is exciting!

Definitely some overrunning about day 15!

12z GFS bottoms SLE out at -17 850mb temps 505 thickness.

12z is definitely in the cold camp. Cold air is here by day 8.

At least NorCAL looks like they'll get a little rain this week. Tuesday and Wednesday look a little damp here. Which is good, we really need the rain.

CFS still going for the cold February.

It is worth mentioning that the 06z operational is a significant outlier on the warm side after February 5th. The 06z ensembles are actually pretty decent.

December was well below average up here. January has probably been around or slightly above average up here...I don't get the warming offshore flow that Tim gets.

54 for a high at Denali today. All-time January record.

Lotta cold ensemble members. Overall they are everywhere though.

Lets just have some common sense objective talk about the models! There is some hope, but also at least a 50% chance that nothing very interesting will happen. DIscuss!!!

A win is a win, if you win the Super Bowl who cares what people say?!

More like hour 336.

Interested into which camp the 00z Operational will fall!

Yeah, but he does.

I asked my daughter what she thought about everyone bickering about nothing...

Looks like SLE had 51/24 today.