Nov1985

ICON is a follow model, not a lead model. You can see it is slowly following the better models with progress.

NWS Seattle will only warn for snow after several inches have been measured by a trusted spotter or DOT camera. NWS Portland will issue warnings whenever the air smells funny!

But that doesn't speak to statistical performance and reliability when compared to other models.

I don't think GFS has been statistically proven to "lead" in anything, ever.

Ya, I mean the ECMWF ensembles 06Z mean 850T was even colder than the 00Z was. The 00Z was colder than the 12Z was. ECMWF ensembles are still trending colder.

Dual solo? That's a contradiction.

Just a 13° difference between GFS and ECMWF for tonight's low temps. The ECMWF winter warm bias and GFS winter cold bias was never more evident than the past week.

All the models are still tweaking depth and location of the low. 00z NAM even switched back from Wed to a Tue low! It's model indecision.

This week's systems have overperformance written all over them!

Looks like you are in line for more snow from around 2 to 5 pm. If you are nice, I will send more.

Small chances around near year's

If it has to come, 1am to 4am ain't a bad time. The power might go out some places, but few clueless folks on the road. Light accumulation most spots except Olympia area and the usual suspects in/near Oregon.

ECMWF keeps moderating slightly as a given day gets closer, especially 70 to 80 hrs out. Tuesday temps up slightly with this run. Tomorrow night we'll probably see moderation of those Wed temps. And then again Mon night for Thu temps. Still going to be cold, but probably not THAT cold IMO.