Nov1985

either way you slice it.

After the arctic front on Sunday, there is a ULL that goes inland around Skagway north. I'd rather bring that off the Olympic peninsula in future runs.

Roughly similar timing to retreat 850Ts. Tuesday evening on the ECMWF, late Tues night on the GFS.

12z on the left

Lots of potential. Going to be a fun week model watching.

Yeah, I prefer a stalled ULL first, then bring the over running surface low just before xmas please!

Not quite as good as the 6z but at least it's getting the general idea.

It's just so cute and adorable when GFS tries to play with the big boy forecast models....

There's a chance.

Interesting, ensembles actually warmer with this run for around xmas.

Ensembles, mean, control seem to paint deep upper level cold from Saturday night through Tuesday. If the modified arctic front hits right, we could see a quick and windy inch of snow Sunday morning. Dew points are absurdly low after the front. Hoping we get an upper level low stalling around the Olympic peninsula.

Me likes the trend.

I don't think the GFS is relevant for the time being at least.

00z vs 12z 850T.

Too early for details, but 00z sends the ULL inland at Haida Gwaii instead of south of Vancouver island like the 12z did. Enables a bit of a cold retreat earlier than the 12z. Lot's of time to fix that.

Here's the modified arctic front passing. Maybe the upper low from the 12z will come in this run too.

2M temps

It's the ECMWF and it starts in 156 hours. Doesn't get much better than that for a week out!

ECMWF keeps trending earlier and colder. This is going to be fun!

As of last Friday, GFS clown range starts at hour 3 now. Just sayin'

That's when EPS warms us up, but I'm thinking that 2nd cold push around then could drift west next few runs. So maybe GFS whiffs the first, but catches that 2nd wave.

All you need to do is click everything 4 times a half second apart, or hit enter on the URL in the browser 4 times. The 4th try usually works. They misconfigured a server or load balancing setting. I jumped back to Weatherbell anyway, that Pivotal slider and missing ensemble charts drove me nuts!

That second cold push south around 12/24 might trouble Texas. There's time for that push to move to west of the Cascades too. Because a 4 or 5 day freeze would be way more fun than a 2-day event!

Last 2 ECMWF runs for the period of interest.