Nov1985

I'm on an underdesk treadmill with nothing better to do to make time pass. I can share these 18zs if you don't mind.

Are you implying that I didn't will those snow days to happen as a kid? I'm certain that I did it.

5 model 850T opinions for 4pm Saturday. Apparently 500 mb anomaly not available for all models on Pivotal.

850s

Good idea. Tonight's 00z. I can always be an attentive husband and father later, like when the models have nothing to watch.

Ya, an infamous Christmas day snow map worth saving. Especially with the 24-hr later map reference.

I noticed that earlier. Queue the east coast media "polar vortex" taglines soon!

Sounds like the best Christmas. Candles, fire in the fireplace, no big cooking pressure, relatives can't make it. There will be a surge of baby births in late September, 2023...

The proposed icing animated

The womping, animated

So so true.

I can't seem to find anything to like in this run at all so far.

Everyone in Tacoma can rejoice at least. The snow donut hole is gone with this sketchy run.

The overrunning event may be what is remembered for Instagram and tweet-worthy snowfall measurements. There is also lots of potential before that with a potential ULL and another low into S Oregon or N CA. Those are the details I'm most looking for in future model runs. One of my favorite PNW features is a ULL coming down the BC coast when 850Ts are very cold. They often do crazy things that no forecast gets right. Overrunning snow is zzzzz for me. I get so much of it and hard to shovel.

The event start is really like 5 days out on ECMWF. The unusually cold 850Ts for the region slide over the border early Monday morning on that model. The 6z 18z ECMWF runs start to come into play with today's 18z run. (The 6z was a touch earlier with upper level cold air).

A gratuitous GFS snow map.

12z eight fitties

Thu morning

If you are going to claim Euro is moving towards GFS, don't you have to specify which GFS run? So much movement between runs compared to ECMWF for the period. Here's Wed morning GFS.

Tue morning

Doh fixed. Need your eagle eyes when I do my taxes next time. Thanks!