Nov1985

It will happen again. But I think ECMWF/EPS will pick it up before the event start is 130 hours out. Also, big difference of 3 feet of snow in downtown Seattle (GFS forecast) vs at 600' in the snowy spots of Kitsap co.

More likely than the 00z GFS, the very dry air will be crippling if you don't have enough hand lotion.

It's going to feel cold Sunday to Wednesday, but I don't think we have to worry about "too much" snow. Certainly not roof-collapsing amounts of snow with this setup.

Euro already threw them a bone and EPS has been consistent. We won't see 40" of snow in Seattle, and Spokane won't smash its low temp record. But a nice round of moderate cold and snow will sink well into Oregon. It's all right there in ECMWF and EPS runs for 3 days now...

Ya, but snow depth in that run peaks at only 24.7" for Seattle. Lame....

Maybe after Wednesday or so. But EC/EPS has a decent probability track record for the Sat/Sun event timeframe.

Pay no attention to GFS. It means literally nothing this week.

Just ignore GFS entirely. Mr. consistency runs in less than 2 hours.

Random musings...

I swear I read this comment and map yesterday.

NAM actually forecast that narrow pscz band. First spotted by Skunk Bay weather as scary clouds then it quickly aligned and dumped for a few hours right on the King Sno line. Power went out quick. Heaviest snow I ever shoveled.

The trees, branches, cracking and crashing. It was terror. Lost a few tree tops too. Structure repairs and cleanup cost $$$. But I'd do it again.

Just a few miles N and E of Seattle was 11 inches heavy snow. The tree damage from that one was significant. There was wind after too.

Agree on the forecast maps changing. I see some risks too, but I thought that nudge west of the high pressure between 00z and 12z actually looked pretty good. I didn't notice the staying north part.

T-Minus 114 hours until that modified front passes over the San Juan islands!

12z EPS showed cold and snow into N. California. 18z EPS just doesn't go that far out. Aside from debunked GFS snow maps, what model is showing a border hugging event?

M vs C 18z/12z

Cold air still moving south when EPS hits the 144 hr limit. Maybe a bit slower. M vs C 18z / 12z snowfall with the front.

Above was Control. Here is Mean.

A little less aggressive.

EPS tiny bits of adjustment. 12z / 18z

Speaking of low level cold, the last time I broke 42°F was November 26! Snowfalls of 8.5" and 3.5" so far this season. 4th fun winter in a row IMBY.

I think this event has been advertised as a quick hit since the start about a week ago (6-10/8-14, EPS and other forecasts). Only thing that's changed is it is trending about 1.5 days earlier for start, while the ending/warmup hasn't really changed much.

This season I have enjoyed watching Russel Wilson suffer more than watching the Seahawks succeed. I may need to seek counseling.

Pretty sure December is still a ratings month for old school radio and TV media formats. So I'm sure they are drawing up the graphics today!