Joshua Lake Oswego

It looks like Portland might slip into the southern periphery of the weak atmospheric river later this week. That's the trend at least. You won't here me complaining if that happens. I would lose my bet with @RentonHillTC, but it would be worth it.

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually both... 12Z run on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for Wednesday morning through Friday morning.   Big change for the Seattle area for sure.  

Yea, I suppose so. It was always going to bust in Oregon regardless. 

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS coming in north with the AR event... following the ECMWF.

It’s not any further north, it’s just weaker.

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another nice soaker for CA on the GFS. 

El Nino? 

The AR later in the week is going to skip Oregon again. The trend is very clear at this point. The GFS, ICON, and GEM are all trending north. I already ‘’knew’’ this would happen, but I still had some hope for us. That’s gone now with 4 days to go. At least the rug wasn’t pulled at the last minute.

First, Vancouver Island. Then, Central/Northern Cali. Then, most of Washington. Will we ever be the bride or will we always the bridesmaid?

We’re likely going to end October slightly above normal for rainfall with a dry start to November. You would never guess that with all the forecast maps posted over the last week. The good news is that if we get less than .99’’ of rain through Friday, I win my bet with @RentonHillTC. My bet was for less than half of the Euro ensemble forecasted precipitation at the time. Fool’s bet or seen this movie too many times before? We’ll soon see. 

42 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Squall line heading my way!

Total bust here. About 10 minutes of gusty conditions and a 2 minute downpour. Overall, quite a calm day. Took in the Portland Japanese Garden this morning without so much as a breeze or a drop of rain. Absolutely gorgeous there. Past peak though.

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. 

23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

The GFS has been pretty consistent in hitting us with an AR late next next though. My gut is telling me that it will end up being most impactful north of us if it materializes. 

55 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. 

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

25 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Very wet night out there. It was hard to see driving in the dark. I drove past a car that just had just recently ran into a tree in LO. Ambulance was driving up just as I went by. 

Really? Bummer. Hope they’re ok. Where in LO?

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Foggy all summer and rainy all winter there.

Sounds like heaven. Explains why redwoods thrive there. Well, they used to thrive anyway.

Some weather stations in Crescent City, CA are approaching 5” of rain on the day.

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol he will never be satisfied. 

I will be happy when we are far above normal precipitation for the year.

I’m seeing some strong bust potential for some locations for the Thursday evening into Friday morning event. Hard to say exactly where at this point. Could be the Puget Sound, could be the Willamette Valley including Portland, could be the northern Oregon/southern Washington coast, could be the I-5 corridor in Washington. 
 

Anything under .50’’ by daybreak on Friday is a bust in my opinion. 

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

End of the 12z EPS is showing the signs of a pattern change for the start of November with a ridge building over the W Coast.

Hopefully accompanied by some fake cold. I love dark, gloomy inversions with temps stuck in the 40s in the valley.

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Oh no my bet

Haha. There will be lots of flopping in the coming days. I really like my chances though. 

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is very different than the 12Z GFS for Sunday... 12Z ECMWF agrees with its 00Z run.

The 12z Euro is very good for your neck of the woods late next week.

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z GFS coming in a lot drier. No AR middle of next week. 

The GEM is way drier too.

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Yes that’s right. 10 days starting today for 3 inches at PDX, 3:1 for you

It's a bet!

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z NWS NBM puts PDX near 6 inches of rain by 10/30.

How is that a blend of models when there is no single model that is showing anything even remotely close to that? What models are they blending?

I know it's not PNW weather-related, but my goodness has the East Coast had a warm fall so far. New York, Philadelphia, Washington D.C. and Boston all dropped below 50 degrees for the first time this on Monday. Washington D.C.'s average October temperature is warmer than Las Vegas'. Brutal. Sorry, Phil.

It makes me thankful that we have had a ''fall feeling'' this October. Lots of cool days and nights. Some fog. Some rain. Fall colors are very vibrant this year too. 

6 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Joshua Lake Oswego EPS has PDX rain totals at 6+ for 15 days. I will do $20 at 5:1 for you that they hit 50% of that total (lets say 3 inches). by day 10. Thoughts?

You’re on! I don’t think this is fair for you though. Same bet with 3:1 odds is fine. So, is today, Oct 20th the start date and Oct 29th the end date? 10 days, right? 

3 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Poor Lake Oswego Joshua, he's gonna have a really hard time with this. That's some nasty drought weather heading his way.

Absolutely epic 00z runs. I am confident we are entering a wet stretch starting Thursday night. How wet? We’ll see. I wouldn’t be surprised if what actually falls is only 1/3rd of the 00z Euro/GFS forecast.

The QPF rug pulling has been initiated on the Euro (essentially cut in half in one run in the 200 hour timeframe), GFS, and ICON. Wednesday was already added to the bust list a couple of days ago. Sunday busted as expected.

We're in the goldilocks zone for those of you that don't love rain. Vancouver Island got pummeled a few days ago. Now, Northern California gets their turn. When we need the rain to shift south, it shifts north. When we need it to shift north, it shifts south.

Eventually, we have to be in the bullseye, right? Hopefully it will be when we have offshore flow in place and -9C 850 mb temps. 

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Good for Oregon. 

There’s nothing good about wind.