Joshua Lake Oswego

Still wet

Yes, they need it more than we do here. It’s not a competition though. The entirety of Oregon and California needs much more rain. Models are looking very promising for the northern half of California and all of Oregon.

The GEM is remarkably similar to the GFS.

It keeps going…

Haha. Good idea. Or, it could just freakin’ rain here. I have visited the Columbia River Gorge after some heavy rainfall and it’s just awesome. Same with Silver Falls State Park. I would love to see Snoqualmie Falls in its full splendor.

Don’t worry… the low will end up 300 miles north or west of where it is shown now. Cold rain at best for the Washington lowlands.

Well, it has performed horribly so far. It was advertising a soaking for everybody west of the Cascades tomorrow as recently as the 12z run yesterday. All other models had trended towards the bust long before. The Euro is finally now on board with the bust the past couple of runs.

The GFS called this weekend’s bust way before the Euro. In fact, all models did. The HRRR is the only holdout.

Perhaps. I actually think the 10th percentile is way too optimistic right now. The 12z EPS 10th percentile is at 2.47” in the next two weeks for PDX. The minimum of all 50 members is 1.11”. Median is 4.11”. I would put money on us staying below the 10th percentile if anyone is game. Theoretically, your odds are extremely good.

You’re witnessing what has happened to Oregon for the past couple of years. Models tease and then take away. It’s always 7, 10, 14 days out. Very rarely comes to fruition. That’s why I have been saying to use the 10th percentile on the GFS/Euro ensembles for a realistic QPF forecast beyond a few days. I swear by it.

So, you’re saying it will be warm and wet?

I hate being right sometimes.

Ha. You make the bet this time.

And, 10 day rainfall. How will we get any outdoor activities done?

And, next Sunday.

Looks like this won’t be the last sunny, warm weekend of fall. Next Saturday…

Saturday was always going to be sunny and warm. Forgive me for wanting rain when our entire state is in severe, extreme, or exceptional drought.

Game over for this weekend. The GFS, ICON, NAM, and high-def GEM are trending drier. Most are bone dry. The Euro is the last holdout. It will either abruptly flip to a drier solution or gradually do it the next few runs. It doesn’t matter if the models are wet in the mid/long-term if the verified amount is only a small fraction of the forecasted amount. This is either 3 or 4 busts in a row after the September overachievers. Probably about 20 out of the last 23 or so for Portland.

I just saw that. It won't happen, but holy sh*t. I love it.

Or less than .25'' looking at the 12z GFS and ICON.

The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.

Weird. I am using weather.us as I don’t have a pay subscription to any sites. They must be using the control instead of the mean for the GEFS. Or, I’m just an idiot. Both are possible. In any event, that makes a lot more sense. No way the GFS control is correct though.

There is a huge rainfall discrepancy between the 12z Euro and GFS ensembles. The average for the GFS is lower than the single lowest member of the Euro. The single highest GFS member has half of the rainfall of the Euro average. This is over the full run. Can’t recall a time seeing them so wildly different. A couple hundred miles difference in low placement makes all the difference. We know how this game works when rooting for snow. Too far north and it’s too warm. Too far south or west and it’s too dry.

Yea, Sunday is looking like it could be a midnight high type of day. The 12z GFS brings back the rain on Sunday too.

The 6z GFS leaves us high and dry this weekend. The firehose is pointed right at Vancouver Island. If you look at the progression of the last 5 or so runs, the bullseye keeps moving north. It always does.