Joshua Lake Oswego

12z GEM at 240

Seasonal temps and dry as a bone. The GEM looks horrible.

Not going to get there unless the RRR retrogrades further. The Euro drops the trough out of the north. The GFS is having none of it.

We’ll see if the trough slides in or if the ridge rebuilds east

Looking good.

Yes, and it’s not even remotely close. We are averaging 66.9 in Portland with at least another week of wayyy above average temps. The record warmest October is 60.1.

The Euro might as well put us out of our misery.

Better for who? The GFS and GEM are both bone dry for Oregon for the next 10 days. Anything beyond that… well, you have seen how that goes.

Feels bad, man

Number 2 would be more upsetting to me at this point.

GEFS is crap. Low next weekend is weakened and further west.

Please go west...

The Euro likes to follow the trend of the GEM. Betting on a similar horrid solution. I would love to be wrong.

You're late to the party, man. We know. Enormous change from one run to the next.

A glimmer of hope?

I wish. It's a bright sunny day just like 115 out of the last 120 days.

June, 2015

+6.7. We're at +8.0 so far with tons of warmth to go.

Always delayed and always neutered. We know how this movie ends.

GEM threw in the towel. It's over. Vs:

I know some people scoff at that, but I genuinely believe it. The GFS is underestimated. Yea, the operational run 10+ days out can produce some whacky solutions, but for forecasting overall emerging patterns, it is the king in my experience.

The Euro and GEM still look good. I don't like the trend on the operational and ensemble GFS though.

Not really. Awfully dry for what is supposed to be our big pattern change. Each of the last 4 runs have gotten progressively drier.

Do not look at the 00z GFS. GEM is looking like a nice setup.