Joshua Lake Oswego

It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro.

What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch.

The 18z did what we knew it would… neuter the low.

So, even if the temp doesn’t go up 1 degree for the rest of the day, it’s still a warmer than normal day.

It’s kind enough to let us touch average temps for about 3 hours out of the next 360. Big win.

Well, we have a 588 dm ridge parked over us indefinitely in the long-term. Also, no chance of meaningful rainfall. Still, I will take a couple of coolish days with a few light showers at this point.

Well, for one day at least. Still +2 on the day too.

I’m tempted to take you on, but I don’t think it will either. Regardless, fall is postponed until further notice.

The 18z GFS gives Portland 80 or better 12 out of the next 15 days. I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.

Will Portland break the 70 and above streak today? The 50 and above streak for lows will live on much longer.

And this is all after the hottest week ever in July, the hottest month ever in August, and the hottest September ever. The cold equivalent in the winter seems incomprehensibly ridiculously impossible. In fact, any single one of those record equivalents does.

Exactly. The bottom line is...

Heck, I might call in sick.

The good news is that the models aren't showing any rain for at least two weeks so they can't let you down.

As is green grass season.

Who cares about cold? We just need 1/2'' of freakin' widespread rain before every last plant, shrub, and tree in the PNW dies.

The CPC forecasts that aren't obvious based on current operation/ensemble model output (like those that you posted) are worthless just like any other long-term forecast. Case in point...

Funny, but more like July 94th.

If the forecast plays out (it will), we will average around 66 degrees for the first half of October. That's warmer than the average June or September. October averages 55.6. In 3 days, the average high will be 69 and the average low will be 49. We haven't had a high that low since June 19th or a low that low since May 22nd. Our record streaks of 70+ and 50+ could go on another two weeks.

It is insane how many 16 day runs in a row show us getting skunked for rain. That doesn’t even happy in mid-summer too often. There is not even a glimmer of hope until well beyond halfway through October.

Or, there could be no rhyme or reason at all and weather just happens? Sometimes you get heads, sometimes you get tails. Sometimes you get heads 3 times in a row. You could get heads 10 times in a row even though the odds are very much stacked against you. That feels like what we’re experiencing. Last June felt like heads 20 times in a row, although I know those odds are astronomically low.

This is why I believe that analogs are useless. Wayyyyy too many variables and too short of a recorded history of weather.

This is what wet looks like…

Agreed. It’s really not that wet though. It seems to revert to climatology more than anything for precipitation that far out.

No below normal days the whole month. Sounds right to me. 65 out of the last 70 days including today have been above normal. Let’s go for 95 out of 100.