westMJim

That is some cold readings for November!!!

There is a strange light source outside today. Yes, the sun has just came out here at my house. And the temperature has now jumped up to 38° The mean temperature so far this November is now at 36.7° and that is a departure of -6.0° the warmest it has gotten so far this month is just 52° if this holds for the rest of the month that will be the coldest maximum for any November in recorded history here at Grand Rapids. The current record is 53 set in 1907 with 55 in 2nd place (1920, 1976). Just as fast as the sun came out it now has gone cloudy once again.

Getting light snow falling here with a current temperature of 33° So far this month the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 37.0° that is good for a departure of -5.9° so far a total of 8.9” of snow has fallen. One very interesting item is that the warmest it has gotten so far this month is just 52° if this were to hold for the rest of the month this would be the coldest highest temperature for any November in the recorded history here at Grand Rapids the current coldest high for any past November is 53 set in 1907 with 55 being is 2nd place with a 55° and 56° in 3rd place tie in 1967 and 1997.

The official snow fall for yesterday at GRR was 3.2" and the total for the month so far is 8.9" The average snow fall in November for Grand Rapids is 6.3" but has ranged from 0" (in several years) up to 31.0" in 2014. It should be noted that a snowy November does not indicate that there will be a snowy winter. The current mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 37.3° and that is 5.8° below average. The last time it reached 60 or better was way back on October 14th Going back to 1892 there have only been 9 past Novembers that Grand Rapids has not reached 60 or better 2018 is now on the way to be number 10. Here is a list of the past 9 and a brief recap of that winter 1. 1907/08 aver temps snow 43.4" 2. 1919 Cold then average snow fall 56.9" 3. 1920/21 warmer that average only 35.6" snow fall reported. 4. 1921/22 warm Dec ave J/F snow fall 44.1" 5. 1925/26 average temps snow fall 89.5" 6. 1967/68 colder that average 55.1" 7. 1969/70 colder than average snow fall 84.6" 8. 1976/77 Cold than average winter snow fall 70.8" 9. 1997/98 warmer than average 59.8". We shall see if we do or do not make 60 or better the rest of November and if we don't how this winter will play out. It should be noted that 1968/69, 1976/77 and 1997/98 were El Nino winters.

Still snowing here now up to just over 1.5" with the snow still coming down at a good clip yet. The roads are snow covered and slippery here. The temp is 31

Picked up just over a half inch of snow here. The ground and roads are snow covered and slippery. Even the main roads have snow and ice on them. The current temperature here is 31

Been getting light snow here since 12 noon. Not much on the ground just white spots on the grass the road is just wet, The current temperature here is 32°

Cloudy here with a temperature of 32° I can see blue sky to the north so the cloud shield is just overhead. The low since midnight here was 24.1° but it got down to 23.8° before midnight and before some clouds moved in.

Yesterdays high of 30° was the coldest high here at Grand Rapids since April 7th. There were on and off snow showers all day but did not accumulate. The low here at my house so far has been 24.1° the current temperature here is 25.5° Grand Rapids has had 20 cloudy days in a row so today's forecast of mostly sunny later in the day will be welcomed,

At this time there is light snow falling and a trace of snow on the grass and road. The current temperature here at my house is now at 28.9° and that is the low since midnight. So far this November has a mean temperature of 39.5° at Grand Rapids the average mean for the time of November is 43.7° so that is a departure of -4.2° The average high so for is 44.0° this is well below the normal average high of 51.6° the average low so far has been 34.9° the normal average low is 35.8° so far 5..3" of snow has fallen at the airport. Here at my house I have only recorded 3.9" of snow fall so far this month.

I see GRR reported 3.8" of snow yesterday and that tied the record for the date. Still have a solid snow cover on the grass and roof tops here at my house. Snow on the ground for two days is kind of rare for November. It is cloudy and a cold 32 here at this time.

I have now added my list. Several snow events are on both of our list.

Top winter storms I have lived in 3 locations in my life time (Alpena, Michigan. Bay City, Michigan and Grand Rapids, Michigan). In my very early life time I live in Alpena, Michigan I was very young and of course I did not keep any kind of records from back then. We moved to Bay City Michigan in the spring of 1960 and that September 1st the city was hit with a major Derecho and the thunderstorm had 80+ MPH winds. There were so many trees down all around town that it was almost impossible to get around town. Much of the town was without power for more than a week and the clean up took much longer. School started a week later then planned due to trees and power lines still down. It was that storm that got me interested in my life long hobby of weather related events. Now on the topic of some of my most (biggest) winter time events. I have broken the list down between Bay City and Grand Rapids, Bay City 7. April 3 1975 snow storm that dropped 16" of snow with high winds and much thunder snow. This storm was very intense. This snow fell mostly from around 10 PM on the 2nd to about 2 AM on the 3rd I 6. in 5 place is the January 13 1979 storm that storm dropped 18" of snow on Bay City with high winds. After this storm the rest of January and February were very cold. 5. in 4th place on my list is February 24 1965 this storm also had high NE winds and a lot of 10 foot drifts. This storm dumped just over 18” in Bay City. 4. Next on the list is the March 17, 1973 St Paddys day storm that storm also had NE winds in the 55 to 60 MPH range with 22" of snow along with thunder snow but this time the wind blew the water of Saginaw Bay up on the shore and into the Saginaw river and into town so we had both 20+ inches of snow and a flood at the same time. People living along the Bay shore had to be evacuated as water rose up and into their houses. 3. The March 2-3 1976 ice storm. This ice storm is the bench mark of ice storms in my life time. This storm had 5” of snow then 1.5” of ice. The storm had winds NE winds in the 35 MPH range with heavy snow this heavy freezing rain along with thunder and lightning. The ice knocked down many trees and power wires. The ice was 1.5” thick and you could (try) and walk on top of the 15” of snow on the ground. I still can hear in my mind the sound of the trees falling that night. I am going to put storms 1 and 2 together as they make up the bench mark of winter storms in my live time. I am not sure if we will ever have a repeat of either storm but if we do that storms will become your new bench mark of winter storms. 2. January 26 1978. Almost the same as the 1967 (see storm #1) storm very high winds in the 55 MPH range (we lived less than 6 blocks from Saginaw Bay) much thunder and lightning. I was married and working at this time and I did not have work for 2 days. yet another odd thing about the two storms is that they both started late on a Wednesday into Thursday. These two storms are my bench mark for winter storms 1. January 26, 1967 25" officially but could have been more. Had 20 foot drifts with 50 to 60 MPH NE winds. The front door was drifted shut, But side door of the house and for about 20 feet from the house there was less than 1 inch of snow. Along with the very high winds the storm had much thunder and lightning. I was in High School at that time as we did not have school for over a week and in fact we were snowed in for 4 days and we lived in town. Grand Rapids I moved to Grand Rapids in April of 1984. While Grand Rapids averages much more snow per winter season then Bay City the storms that have occurred here are of a different nature then the one in Bay City. Being near the Saginaw Bay, Bay City’s storms are more of like a Northeaster in nature while that is not the case here in Grand Rapids. 4. The December 23 to 31st 2001 lake effect event when Grand Rapids received snow every day from the 23rd to the 31st The most snow fell right over the Christmas period with 6.7” falling on Christmas 11.9” on the 26th and 9.6” on the 27th the total for the 9 day event was 51.6” 3. on January 22nd Grand Rapids at the airport received 12.8” in a 3hr time period. Here at my house I received 18” on that same night. This came with high winds and a lot of drifting. Visibilities were near zero. I worked 3rd shift at that time in Coopersville and while I started out for work that night I came back home after traveling about 3 miles on I 96. In my 20 years working 3rd shift that was the only time I did not go to work due to a snow storm. 2. February 1-2 2011 this had became known as the GHD storm the two day total at GRR was a reported 17.2” and here at my house I reported 19” while not a lot of wind the snow was heavy enough that we could not get our cars out to the main road and thus my son was not able to go to work for 2 days. 1. I feel that the biggest storm since I moved to Grand Rapids was the January 2-6 1999 storm. That storm dropped a reported total of 26.8” at GRR and 33.5” here at my house. The storm had heavy snow and high winds and whiteouts. I did go to work during that storm but on one of the mornings I stayed and had breakfast at the Coopersville Burger King before heading home after it became light out due to the whiteout conditions that morning

The two day total here at my house for this event was 3.5" the first .7" that fell on the 8th melted and last night there was 2.8" of snow fall. This morning the grass and road are snow covered. The low was 24 but it is now up to 29.

Here at my house I just recorded 2.8" of snow overnight. This morning the grass and the road are snow covered. The lowest temperature here was 24° but it has warmed up and the current temperature is 29°

As is typical for November this mornings snow is now all gone The temperature here is now up to 39. will have to see how tonight plays out.

This is from this AM discussion from GRR A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, IMPRESSIVE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG, INVERSION HEIGHTS TAPPING NORTH OF 12,000 FT, AND DEEP/STRONG LOW-LEVEL LIFT THAT CROSSES INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SCREAM THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR MESOLOWS. THE MAIN DETRIMENT TO SNOW INTENSITY WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH INLAND, AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WHICH WILL TEND TO FRACTURE SNOWFLAKES INTO "BLOWABLE DUST." ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT (IN WHICH SNOWFALL AND WIND INTENSITIES WOULD BE ENHANCED), OUR PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES/HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FESTIVITIES. NONETHELESS, ANOTHER 2-4" OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FAVORING AREAS WEST OF US-131 AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE I-94 AND I-96 CORRIDORS. EQUALLY-IMPRESSIVE (AND NON-COINCIDENTAL) SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WILL PUT A SQUASH TO ALL LAKE-EFFECT SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-7" ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF US-131 AS WELL AS BETWEEN THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDORS WITH 2-4" ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, IT'S BEST TO FOCUS ON EXPECTED IMPACTS RATHER THAN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS

First snow fall of the 2018/19 winter season here. At this time getting light to at times moderate snow fall. At this time the flake size is rather large and I have just over 0.7" of snow on the snow board. The grass, car and roof tops are covered and areas where there are a lot of fallen leaves on the road are also snow covered, But the road and driveways are just wet.

This is a copy my post on the November OBS topic. While I don't like to say too much before a event and to me the current temperatures here are too warm (I have 37 here at my house now) but all that said the GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting later tonight. DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 8 2018 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO PART EVENT UPCOMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART IS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT. AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ABOVE FREEZING SKIN TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THURSDAY EVENING. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT THE COMBINATION OF SNOWY ROADS DURING RUSH HOUR AND THIS BEING THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF INVERSION IN NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIGOROUS SNOW BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH AN HOUR SNOW RATES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN QUICKLY AFTER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS THE GOOD CHANCE OF AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREA OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO BE AFFECTED BY THE F-GEN SNOWS OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. We will have to see if and how this plays out

While I don't like to say too much before a event and to me the current temperatures here are too warm (I have 37 here at my house now) but all that said the GRR NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory starting later tonight. DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EST THU NOV 8 2018 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO PART EVENT UPCOMING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST PART IS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH GOES NEGATIVE TILT. AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SNOW THAT SHOULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ABOVE FREEZING SKIN TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATE ON ROADS THURSDAY EVENING. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT THE COMBINATION OF SNOWY ROADS DURING RUSH HOUR AND THIS BEING THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON WAS ENOUGH TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY EVENING THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LACK OF INVERSION IN NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VIGOROUS SNOW BANDS PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH AN HOUR SNOW RATES BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A QUICK HITTER AS INVERSION HEIGHTS COME DOWN QUICKLY AFTER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS THE GOOD CHANCE OF AN AREA OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREA OVER OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CLIPPER BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT DURING THIS TIME AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SE LOWER MICHIGAN TO BE AFFECTED BY THE F-GEN SNOWS OF A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. We will have to see if and how this plays out

Cloudy, breezy with some light drizzle and 37°

In my neck of the woods I would say about 60% to 70% of the trees are now bare. I have a Red Norway Maple that is now around 50% bare and there is a large tree in the Maple family across the road that is now yellow but still is hanging onto many of its leaves. There are a lot of trees in my area that are in the Maple family that seem to hang on to their leaves late each fall, their leaves don't have much color in them the leaves are smaller then most Maples but have a Maple leaf shape. And of course the woods across the way has many oak trees. I walk to and many times into that woods and while some of the Oaks have lost their leaves many have not.

I have gas for the snow blower, One thing I will say about the above snow map is that early in the season the first few lake snow events are many times further inland and not so much at the lake shore. The reason for that is the lake is still warm and that in turn keeps the lake shore areas warmer.

Looking out the window the leaves are still falling at a steady clip here in my area. Some of the trees are bare but there are still a lot of leaves yet to fall on some of the trees. It should be noted that there are a lot of Oak trees in my area and they tend to drop their leaves late. But there are several types of Maples that also have many leaves on them and I have a Red Norway Maple in the front yard that just does not want to give up it leaves. In many years I just let the wind take care of its leaves. (and for the most part the wind will do that) Light rain with falling leaves here with a temperature of 40°

The last time it has reached 60° or better here in Grand Rapids this year was on October 14th In October 1976 the last last 60 or better date here in Grand Rapids was on October 15th. November 1976 is one of only 9 Novembers in Grand Rapids history that it did not reach 60 or better. In 1976/77 October, November, December and January were all well below average temperature wise. While there was some lake effect snow on this side of the lake big snow storms were not the norm the winter season of 1976/77