westMJim

@ Tom BTW, this question is for those older posters on here that can remember the late 70's. Was this a similar pattern that evolved in November back then?? It is still too early to try and compare past Novembers and remember no two seasons are 100% the same. But some past Novembers that somewhat compare to what happened this past October and to what could happen this November IMO are 1959, 1966, 1969, 1971, 1977. Of course there have been times in the past where November's weather did not carry over into the main part of the winter season. That said there is an old saying that "Ice on the pond that can hold the weight of a duck in November the winter will be filled with mud" BTW for winter storms my benchmark storms are 1967(January) 1973 (March) and 1978(January) Of the 3 the 1967 storm was the bigger one in Bay City. MI as we were living in town and were snowed in for 4 days. The 1973 storm Bay City had 20+ inches of snow and a flood as the NE winds pushed the Saginaw Bay on the shore of the bay and into the river into town. All 3 of the above storms had very strong NE winds, a lot of snow, and a lot of thunder and lightning. Think of a major summer time thunderstorm with high winds and down pours of snow instead of rain.

Today's sunrise of 8:20 is the latest sunrise of 2018/19 winter season at GRR. After the time change the next latest sunrise will be 8:14 on Jan 3 2019.Current temp here is 38° with mostly cloudy skies.

I don't know about other areas but here in the Grand Rapids, MI area while the trees changed late I think the color this fall is some of the best it has been in many years. Some sun with making that good color come out even better the current temperature here is 48°

Welcome to November As we start a new month lets have a short wrap on October 2018. This past October was a wet one here in Grand Rapids with 5.69” of rain falling (there was a trace of snow on both the 19th and 20th) The mean temperature was 50.4° that was a departure of -0.6° this was the 1st month of below average mean temperature since April. The High for the month was 84° on October 9th that was a record high for that date. The low for the month was 27° on the 18th October 2018 will go down as a month with a warm 1st half and a cool 2nd half as October 14th was the last day Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better. Looking ahead at November there have only been 9 past November's where the temperature did not reach 60 or better in November so there is a good chance Grand Rapids seeing a 60° day or better. In fact it has gotten to 70° or better in 36 of the past Novembers here in Grand Rapids. The average H/L starts out at 54/37 and falls to 40/28 by the end of the month. The record high in Grand Rapids for November is 81° on November 1, 1950 and the record coldest was later that same year when the low reached -10° on 25th. The average rain fall is 3.51" the wettest was 7.90" in 2003 and the driest is 1904 when only 0.4" was reported. As for snow fall the average is 6.8" the most is 31.0" in 2014 and the least snow fall is 0" reported in 1906 and 1907, there are 5 other Novembers were just a trace was reported that last time that happened was in 2001. Ever other November has seen at least 0.1" of snow fall. In 8 of the past Novembers leading into a weak El Nino the November snow fall was above the average with only one 2006/07 being well below average, Based on the past I would say there is a good chance of this November seeing a day or more of 60° or better and seeing at least 7" of snow fall, If Grand Rapids does not see a 60° day in November here is a list of years GR did not and the date of the last 60° day. 1907 last 60° day Oct 22, 1919 Oct 31, 1920 Oct 23, 1921 Oct 31, 1925 Oct 13, 1967 No 60° days in November but there was one in December. 1969 Oct 13, 1976 Oct 15, and 1997 Oct 31. So if GRR does not record a 60 day in November or December this year will be on a short list.

Average is around 75" The average has gone up in recent years not sure if its because of more snow fall or changes in reporting location.

Just got back in from a nice long walk. With the sun out and light winds it feels rather warm out there. Also the sun really brings out the color on the trees as my area is now out if full fall color. While later than average I think the last two days the color here is the best it has been in many years. The current temperature here with that sun is 56°

Happy Halloween! Here at my house I recorded 1.17” of rain yesterday. For the month, GRR has recorded 5.36” this is the 3rd wet October in a row with last year coming in with 9.69” and there was 6.15” back in 2016. Yesterdays official high at GRR was 59° it has not reached 60° at Grand Rapids now since October 14th Odds favor it reaching at least 60 (or better) in November as there have only been 9 years in Grand Rapids recorded history where it did not reach 60 or better in November. The last time it happened was in 1997. The winter of 1997/98 was not a cold or snowy winter as only 59.8” fell here in GR and each winter month was warmer that average. If Grand Rapids fails to reach 60 in November and December I will let you know the last 60° day of all of the affected years.

At this time it looks like we are heading towards a possible weak western/central based El Nino. And as there seems to be a lot of concern as to what kind of snow fall we will see this winter I thought it would be interesting to see how much snow Grand Rapids received in past weak El Nino’s the list does not separate the western/central form the central/eastern one but here is a list of past weak El Nino’s and the November snow fall leading up to that winter. Note that in at least 3 of the of the winters November snow fall was a large part of that winters total snow fall. Here is the list with the season, the November snow fall, Novembers mean temperature and the total snowfall for that winter season. 1952/53 November snow fall 6.4” November mean temperature 42.3° season total snow fall 42.3” 1953/54 November snow fall 7.4” November mean temperature 39.9° Season total snow fall 78.3” 1958/59 November snow fall 8.6” November mean temperature 40.6° Season total snow fall 104.7” 1969/70 November snow fall 14.3” November mean temperature 33.5° Season total snow fall 84.4” 1976/77 November snow fall 8.5” November mean temperature 31.4° Season total snow fall 70.8” 1977/78 November snow fall 10.6” November mean temperature 39.5° Season total snow fall 84.6” 1979/80 November snow fall 9.4” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 48.8” 2004/05 November snow fall 10.3” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 81.7” 2006/07 November snow fall 0.3” November mean temperature 41.3° Season total snow fall 83.3” 2014/15 November snow fall 31.0” November mean temperature 34.3° season total snow fall 78.1” All of the above is the from GRR and might not relate to other locations.

While there are still a lot of leaves on the trees in my area the color has sure exploded over the last two days and this morning most trees are in full color. I would say here north of Grand Rapids the color has now finally reached it peak. I am going to go out for my walk before the rain starts and enjoy to color show. The current temp here is now up to 43.

There now have been 17 days in a row of below average temperatures here at Grand Rapids, but the start of the month was so warm GRR mean is still 50.8° for the month and that is just -08°. I am not sure why but for some reason the leaves on the trees hare hanging on tough this fall. Here in the NW side of the Grand Rapids area there are still a lot of leaves still on the trees. While there is some color the color is not all that great here yet either, Note it is not because of the lack of cold temperatures as there have been several sub 30° lows here.

If we warm up in November think of it as "Indian Summer" This AM here I have had a low of 27.1° so far with clear skies and a calm wind. This is the 4th time it has gotten below 30 here in the last week. But there are still a lot of leaves left on the trees for some reason the leaves are hanging on this fall. Should also note that while there is some color it is not the best.

With clear skies here the current temperature in MBY is 26.2° with a moderate amount of frost. As is the case many times with clear skies and calm winds the temperature here at my house is several degrees cooler then at the airport. Here in my yard the low so far it the current temperature and at the airport the low so far is 29 and the current reading there is 30°. One item of note is that while this is the 3rd hard freeze here in the last 6 days there are still a ton of leaves on the trees here. Some with moderate color and still many that are still green. And there are still many rose bushes that are having their last rose of summer is full bloom,

Seasonal forecast are just a guess. Some would say a educated guess but none the less a guess. If anyone can come up with a long range forecast that is even 70% right 100% of the time they will be on to something. As for J Bastardi there was a time when I thought he knew what he was talking about but it became clear it was the same thing ever year, (as you know even a broken analog clock is right twice a day) As for the CPC once again it is only a guess that they call a outlook. Just think looking back how many "guesses" were right about this past summer? Last spring and last winter? I look at long range guesses as some simple fun and see who if anyone is close to right. As for my thoughts on this winter I will just say "start out with (average) and work from there" Along with average you have to look at the range. So based on my thinking as for snow fall (temperatures are harder yet) Grand Rapids should receive some where between 60 and 80" of snow this winter (but it could be less or it could be more) For Detroit it could be anywhere from 25 to 50" and for Flint they could see anywhere from 35 to 55" and up at Marquette they could see somewhere between 175 and 225" Remember that is NOT my guess that is just a range that could happen and not even the far extremes of that range because at Detroit in just the past 18 years the range has been from 23.7" in 1999/2000 to 94.9" in 2013/14 At Flint the range has been between 29.5"in 1999/2000 to 85.3" in 2017/18 At Grand Rapids the range in the last 18 years has been between 51.2" in 2011/12 to 116.00 in 2013/14 and up in Marquette the range has been between 152.8" in 1999/2000 to 319.8" in 2001/02 and that is just in the last 18 years and not the all time range.

Clear skies here with a temp of 28° here at my house with a lot of frost and ice in the bird bath. At GRR they are reporting a temp of 35 and partly cloudy.

After the quick thunderstorm here the sun is now back out.

Just got a round of pea sized hail here at my house it was at the back edge of that thunderstorm

Getting a thunderstorm here now with some loud thunder claps. Moderate rain falling current temp is 50°

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the CPC's long range guess for temperatures was for equal chances last winter, Anyway on their precip guess for at least Grand Rapids it was a good guess. Last winter the total precip here at Grand Rapids was 9.01" the average for December, January and February here is 6.82" as for the temperature and snow fall. Last winter was a near average winter (for the 3 months) with a winter snow fall of 66.2" (of course 32.9" of that fell in December) and the mean temperature here for the winter was 26.4° with the average being 26.5° once again December was the month with the coldest temps compared to average,

The updated CPC long range guess for November and beyond is now out. Note that in the CPC’s long range guess there are no below average temperatures in their guess for the next year. There is however an area of below average participation in the Great Lakes and Montana areas for the winter months November CPC’s guess http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ And their winter guess http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2 and their spring guess http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=5 Summer 2019 guess http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=8

With clear skies the current temperature here at my house is 26° and that is the overnight low. At GRR the low looks to be 27. This is the coldest it has been at Grand Rapids since April 17th It should be noted while there is frost out this morning there is not a whole lot of frost but here is ice in the bird bath. The last freeze in Grand Rapids was on April 30th so this year Grand Rapids has a 171 days growing season.

A lot will depend on how much if any clearing takes place. Where in Macomb county do you live? Areas closer to metro Detroit in Macomb county warmer then much of lower Michigan.

Much like what happened on October 11th and 13th the high for today 51° happened overnight before a cold front came through the low here at my house was 41 but is now back up to 43. I wonder if that will be a trend this cold season? For the month of October Grand Rapids now has a mean temperature of 56.3° that is still +2.7° the highest for the month is 84° and the coldest so far is a mild 36°. Over at Muskegon the mean is 56.3° that is good for a departure of +3.0 the warmest for this month there is 83 and the coldest so far is a mild 35. So both Grand Rapids nor Muskegon has gotten down to 32 yet this fall season. While we have been above average in in west Michigan off to our north that has not been the case at Marquette their mean so far this October is 40.4° and that is -5.8 the warmest up there is just 66 and the coldest so far has been 25° and they have recorded 2.5” of snow fall so far.

On the west side of the state we did not get as cold as many areas away from the lake. Here are some overnight lows from west Michigan. Grand Rapids (official) 37 here at my house 36,Holland 44 Ionia 34, Muskegon 44, South Haven 40 Marshall 35 and Kalamazzo 32. Over in your area Detroit metro 32, Detroit City 32, Detroit Grosse Ile 34, Pontiac 31 and Lapeer 28.

No frost here last night. The sky did clear out before daybreak but there was a wind and the low here at my house was 36° and the official low was 37 at the airport. So far the coldest it has gotten here this season at GRR is 36° While there is some color and some leaf drop here in the GR area there are still a lot of leaves still on the trees. So that said For any one who is interested I found a site that keeps track of the color change. https://www.foliagenetwork.com/index.php/foliage-reports In looking at their reports it looks like this year is near or even ahead of 2017 and 2016 But behind to way behind the years of 2008 to 2015. In looking at the color change time to the total snow fall the the winter there does not seem to be much of a trend. So based on this years late color change the winter could still go either way (if you want to believe that leaf change can foretell the upcoming winter) if you do then I guess this winter will be similar to the last two.

The coldest low at Grand Rapids in Feb 1899 was -24 on the 13th and 14th. On February 10th the high was -6 and the low was -21 on the 11th the high was 0 and the low was -21 on the 10th the high was 0 and the low was -23° Over at Muskegon the lowest day that month were Feb 11th with a high of -3 and a low of -30 and on the 12th the high was -1 and the low was -29 The coldest low reported at Detroit in February of 1899 was -13 not sure where the reports were taken in Detroit in 1899 but in Grand Rapids they were recorded downtown at that time.