Doinko

Didn't Nanaimo get nailed in December too?

They're going to make the next shift think about it lol We also seriously mulled expanding the Winter Wx Advisory northward into the Portland metro area, as latest models have been trending a little farther north and slower with the 997 mb presently moving onshore near Cape Shoalwater. 00z HREF valley snow totals for areas south of Wilsonville are getting close to warning criteria, with HREF mean now showing a solid 2 to 4 inches and 90th percentile values getting up near 6 inches. But the 00z HREF remains stingy for snow accumulations around the PDX metro area and points north, which makes sense as the air will become very dry as NE flow develops north and east of Portland. Further complicating things is the potential for enhanced low-level frontogenesis and associated banding of snow Wed night as arctic air pushes up against the maritime polar air mass in place. This may develop near or south of Portland, or may not develop at all. Given all this uncertainty, we will not make any changes for the Portland metro, and will allow the midnight shift to take a longer look at 00z models.

Any similarities to February 1995?

Would be pretty incredible to see something similar at all besides the fact that it is late February

Wow

It actually increased snow on this side of the metro area to 7-8"+. I doubt it'll be that uneven though

WWA for the inland empire...

Wonder how cold temps will be Thursday/Friday morning if we get signficant snow cover. Maybe we can manage a subfreezing high if precip/clouds last a bit longer than expected and then some very cold lows once it clears out.

lol the WRF This was the WRF on 1/10/17

Getting pretty excited now. The GRAF which Mark Nelsen seems to like a lot is showing 8" here and it nailed the Valentine's day snow, and the other models show as much too. We had 13" on 1/10/17 too

With the GRAF showing so much here and the other models looking great for PDX, I think I could see 6"+ with this if everything goes well

GRAF was a slight pullback for east metro, but shows 6-8" here

9"+ for the entire metro

GEM looks great

If we get over 4.5" this will be our biggest singular event since then when we had 13".

GFS still looks good. Temps are in the low 20s (probably mid to upper 20s in reality) with heavy snow in west PDX

RGEM actually doesn't look like much phantom snow. All of this falls after 4pm Wednesday.

Maybe we'll get our 1/10/17 repeat with the NWS forecasting barely anything

Would being more on the NW side hurt my chances a bit?

Nice 4" here on the HRRR. Happy we're finally seeing an event where I'm not on the edge like 2/2021 or in the middle of the coast range rain shadow like 12/2021

HRRR really nails Washington County with 4"+ of snow after tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Newberg gets over 10"

Most of the snow at PDX falls below 30 degrees too on this run

We'll need some pictures from @Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone!

I think it's possible we get 3-5" if we're lucky. Would like the cutoff to get a bit farther away but looks good so far. Nice to see an event that will favor this part of the Metro area more, haven't seen much of that maybe except 2/25/19 since 2016/2017