TacomaWx

lol he will be back by the end of the day probably…or when the euro comes out shortly.

Those both compared look pretty solid despite the models refining and watering things down a bit from some of the insane runs.

What hour is the cutoff for ensembles and switching to the OP runs? Like 72-96 hours?

Seems to be easily forgotten at the moment lol…but if it takes a step back we’re in big trouble

Certainly don’t help, but either way we’ve got 0 idea on what’s happening. Not a bust or lock yet!

Have a hard time imagining that detail completely going away at this point with how the models started picking up on it last night.

It’s still early for sure and everything could work out and turn around…but based on the models the regional potential has taken a huge hit. I sense a strong N/S gradient which is typical of what we’ve seen in recent years. I’d also say the top tier potential has taken a pretty big hit also.

Wow, went to bed at 9 last night thinking the euro and EPS would be unchanged and the gfs was completely wrong. Was willing to write that strong low messing everything up as a wonky gfs solution…but there’s some serious doubt about this event as a whole at this point. Although it’s definitely not over and there very well could still be some fun winter weather for atleast some people. Definitely a disappointing turn of events no matter how you look at it.

How the models got us feeling right now

Yup, everything can be given back as quickly as it was taken away especially this far out.

It just seems like typical gfs OP flailing. It’s not tracked as much when snow and cold aren’t a possibility in the runs…but how often do details massively change on the gfs with just standard rain events? It’s not exaggeration when people say it’s a horrible model. It’s just much more obvious when it’s under the scrutiny it is during an event like this.

I think Phil for some reason thinks you’re a formerly banned member under a new account name.I do not believe at all you were “Dabears”.

This feels like a scheduled pullback to me so far. Pretty much every great event lead up has a few of them. If the euro backs off tonight then it’s a problem. Either way there’s just still so much uncertainty.

I’m thinking the 00z euro in about 2 hours will change the entire mood on the forum.

I’ve seen the models come back around from worse than this.

Things start getting really interesting in the 120-144 hour range. Not too far away now!

Normally I’d say that sounded really soon….but if I was in Bellingham and into SW BC I’d feel pretty good right about now. I am definitely not as confident yet for us puget sounders.

The NWS folks who made it

LMFAO

Are you good my brother in Christ?

More like 84-96 hours I’d say. I think by the time late Monday into Tuesday rolls around we should have pretty good idea of what’s about to happen. Most of the models show things starting to get interesting in about 120-144 hours roughly.

A lot of time left…odds are almost always better the further north you go but it’s not a lock yet for western Washington either. I’m feeling good about it for now though!

Im aware this isn’t exactly how it works…but it definitely seemed like the euro traded some cold for more snowfall. Normally I’d take the snowier runs over the coldest runs. This time I was really hoping for historic cold punching all the way down to San Francisco…but overall the last few years it seems like we’ve gotten a lot of these really cold solutions that eventually ended up being more moderated with more snowfall. This also leads to a more N/S gradient. It’s only one run though so no point in over speculation of the details.

Getting to the point where things get interesting at less than 144 hours now…

I feel bad for the new people who are just trying to understand what’s going on but people are blurting out complete nonsense.