TacomaWx

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

No gotcha moment for sure, there was plenty of doubters on that event and even more now.....

The real issue right now is I am stumped how many cheerleaders on here that can have the same name, Debbie Downer... its weird, we are in bonus time now, there is no reason for anyone to poo poo on what may or may not happen but there has been an influx of posts from some "or just one or a few" that are just trying to downplay potential, that is real potential.  There is no reason to post things to counter act the max potential, no reason this time of year to get all nitty on details, what happens, happens, don't need anyone constantly showing too warm, no/less snow model maps.... stupid.

I am not saying 0% chance it snows here next week. Could happen…I don’t think there’s anything wrong with being skeptical about marginal snowfall chances though. I am not trying to be a Debbie downer I love snow. In the Seattle area, this isn’t really a solid guarantee coming up as usual with any snow event. 

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Agreed.   I showed this to Jim last night when he said the ICON literally never shows lowland snow.    It actually did pretty good with that mid-February event.  Its not like it missed it completely.    It was showing lowland snow on every run leading up to that event.  

Yeah definitely. I didn’t mean to say that as a “gotcha” moment towards Chris. All I am saying is that there was healthy and reasonable skepticism for people on the I-5 corridor for that event. I don’t think anyone really thought it wouldn’t snow west of the sound it looked pretty solid over there leading up to this event. I think there’s good reason to be skeptical going into this potential event here in western Washington as well. 

34 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Right!! I got over 3 inches with the mid February event and per most on here, shouldn't have lol!!

Your area and snowmizers area were never really in doubt for that event though. Looked pretty solid west of the sound for days in advance. Most people were just doubting snow for most of puget sound. That ended up being reality here besides near Olympia and a very slushy trace of snow here. 

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That 3/21-22 storm must have been entirely focused to the south.... North Bend had 50/35 on 3/22/12.  

 

Atleast in recent years, these early/mid spring snowfall events seem to have favored some Oregon. 2012, 2020 and 2022 come to mind. We had about 1/2” here in March 2012. 

Quite moist here in snoqualmie much different than 24 hours ago when it was snowing and 35 degrees. Looks like about 0.8” of rain/snowmelt here since midnight but the rain has really started to pick up in the last couple hours. Have discharged about 270,000 gallons of storm water here at my jobsite so far today and that’s just one of the 4 treatment sites. 

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Yeah super frustrating.  It's hard to take anything seriously these days - even the euro has been remarkably wrong this year for Seattle, albeit much better than the gfs.

Maybe this is all done intentionally for meteorologist job-security. 

It’s definitely never been a perfect science but a few years ago the euro was much more accurate than it used to be. It was significantly better than all the other models and didn’t have the “phantom coastal snowstorms” that show up almost every run. 

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It is still possible to have a really grating or unreasonable opinion even if it’s about something outsidrof human control. Comes down to principle  

Yeah I definitely get what he’s saying. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with people just wanting it to snow in their backyard either and not caring about the statistical side of things. Some people like you or I might find a 39/28 day in early March statistically interesting….but most folks would probably rather see it dump a couple inches of wet snow and melt later that day. I can see the appeal of both. 

Hopefully it works out for most folks the potential is there. Like others said though….seems like the last couple winters the forecasting of snowfall especially in these marginal scenarios has gotten terrible. Gotta wait until 12-18 hours out and even then sometimes the agreement is horrible. 

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It always amazes me how you guys will trade days of cold weather for a few hours of slushy snow. 

Either way the Thursday-Sunday period is LOCKED IN and looking great for all. Early next week could be OK for some folks up north or great for everyone if things get suppressed. Think about it. FROZEN GROUND IN MARCH. 

lol you say this like everyone’s voting on what’ll happen and that’ll actually influence the weather

Well there’s atleast a chance we get our first accumulating snowfall in the month of March since 2019. We will see though will be a close call on temps here. Need precip the right time too most likely. 

5 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

I have not seen the words "Clausius-Clapeyron" for a decade, thanks for the flashback to grad school. Definitely a factor when calculating melting temperatures with depth throughout the thickness of an ice sheet.

It's been snowing consistently at 33.5°F here for a few hours, nothing accumulating but it's beautiful (especially since everything is already snow-covered).

Hard to not feel spoiled up here when even for a "quiet" winter I'd still give it a high score. In January, we had a week of very cold temps (down to 9°F!), frigid winds and power outages, all with a few inches of snow on the ground. Then this week we've had a couple days of snow now, plenty enough to pull the kids on the sled. 

Yeah down by the 18/I-90 merger we’ve been going between rain/snow and rain. I can see just a couple hundred feet up on the hills around me is all snow. 
 I’d love to live up in this area. Would be the perfect amount of interesting weather for my taste! 

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Feb 2011 had pretty widespread snow though.  I do remember some places had quite a bit more though.  The coverage last night was severely limited for what we had to work with.

I think the central sound in some areas got screwed in 2011. I remember going to my dad’s house in Auburn and it looked like someone sprinkled powdered sugar on the lawn and that was it. 

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I have a FB Weather group and two people reported 7" last night with pictures. One was near Freeland on Whidbey Island and the other was near Sultan along US-2. I bet the very center of that CZ probably got 10" in a few small spots with how narrow and stationary it was.

February 2011 had some similar narrow convergence bands. Up north got 2’ in spots. One of the luckiest snow events in my life here with 7” falling under one band here in north Tacoma…with much less north of here and a couple inches down south. I remember my grandpa who lives at 900’ out in graham being astounded by me and my brother saying we had more than double the snow he had. 

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems like this trough went about as expected. A decent 2-4" snowfall in the convergence zone and not much else. Screaming onshore flow + limited precip isn't a great combination and this never looked like much more than that.

We will likely be running into the same problem to varying degrees with the next round.

Yeah, as fun as those maps are to look at it’ll take more things going right than wrong for things to work out for us I-5 corridor peasants. 

I’ve never doubted gfs snow maps 

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Do quoted posts not show up on the Commodore 64?

Just started lightly snowing here in snoqualmie. Probably won’t last too long though. Going to be a busy couple days for me. 5” of snowmelt up here then a couple inches of rain tomorrow. That’s a lotta water. Hoping that we can manage some snow in Tacoma later this week if we’re lucky. 

Yesterday was pretty crazy up here in snoqualmie. Right when I was leaving work about 5pm a band of heavy snow moved in. Dumped about an inch of snow in an hour. Shut down highway 18. I got stuck for 1 1/2 hours trying to get over tiger mountain and took 2 1/2 hours to get home. Was not a happy camper! 

Been puking graupel hard here for 10 minutes straight! Never seen anything like this. 

C-zone lining up over us in snoqualmie and dumping snow again. Got up to 37 but back down to 35 again. Based on radar we might be in the crosshairs for awhile. 

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Definitely got snow there.  I think that's only like 800 feet or so.

Yeah about 3” and snowing here still. And to answer @MR.SNOWMIZER question it’s like 100 feet. 

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That Raging River bridge is no small deal.  The river is in a deep canyon there.

Live view of the status on the new bridge.

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

How long is that project planned to go for and are all components funded? 

Supposedly 2026…but knowing construction it’ll probably be more like 2030. Believe it was funded by Biden’s big infrastructure bill. 

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Neat. Are they widening the highway or putting in some sort of development?

I’ve driven that stretch of 18 a few times, I thought I recognized that power line corridor.

They’re making Highway 18 into 2 lanes each direction instead of 1 lane going both ways. It’s a deadly highway right now being 1 lane and narrow here. They’re also re-doing the merge point with I-90 and building a new bridge over raging river.