tomas

http://cdn.tegna-media.com/king/weather/UWgusts.gif

http://www.king5.com/img/wx/resize/cdn.tegna-media.com/king/weather/UWgusts.gif?,mode=pad&width=969&height=545&scale=both&bgcolor=000000

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/NAEFS/naefs_bias-corrected_500hgt_8-14day_anoms-global.png

Bigfoot country

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Redistribution of income and redistribution of wealth-

Signs of strengthening global cooling climatic cyclic history repeats itself.The future is looking cooler. This is also the view of a growing number of "interdependent-non-polical" scientists. Expect cooling over the next 30 years.The entire planet has stopped warming since 1998. People and governments are being urged to go entirely in the wrong direction for the wrong reasons – and at a potentially horrendous price.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr1.24hr.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

(This is very helpful as far as illustrating how the Hadley cell systems work, but I've yet to see any explanation of how -- or even whether -- Hadley cell expansion/retraction is related to the alphabet soup of background states and teleconnection indices. Or is the state of the Hadley cell system independent of those mechanisms?) I can't answer that---ask Phil

The Hadley cell is a movement of warm air heated by the radiation from the sun hitting the surface of the Earth near the equator. The movement of air in the Hadley cell results in the formation of the trade winds moving from the northeast toward the west in the Northern Hemisphere at the equator.In each hemisphere, there is one primary circulation cell known as a Hadley cell and two secondary circulation cells at higher latitudes, between 30° and 60° latitude known as the Ferrel cell and beyond 60° as the Polar Cell. Each Hadley cell operates between zero and 30 to 40 degrees north and south and is mainly responsible for the weather in the equatorial regions of the world., The upward branch of the Hadley cell occurs not directly over the equator but rather in the summer hemisphere. In the upward branch is slightly offset into the northern hemisphere, making way for a stronger Hadley cell in the southern hemisphere. This evidences a small net energy transport from the northern to the southern hemisphere.[

Model projections indicate that the Hadley Circulation will shift its downward branch poleward in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, causing drying in the subtropics as a result and a poleward shift of the southern Hadley Cell.A dry climate-southwestern USA and southern African regions are consistent with projected changes in the Hadley Circulation. http://www.climatetheory.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Hadley-cells-cr.jpg

interestingly the spatial variability of the EPW assumes a Pacific-North American (PNA)-like teleconnection pattern. It is likely that the PNA low-frequency oscillation is a reflection of the oscillations of intensity and position of the members of the EPW in horizontal direction.

This graphic displays the weekly mean anomalies relative to the past 20 year climate. The first panel corresponds to the anomalies computed using ECMWF operational analysis and reanalysis for a given week. The other panels correspond to the eight monthly forecasts starting one week apart and verifying on that week. The model anomalies are relative to the model climate computed from the model back-statistics. The areas where the ensemble forecast is not significantly different from the ensemble climatology according to WMW-test are blanked. The time range of the forecasts is day 1-7, day 5-11, day 8-14, day 12-18, day 15-21, day 19-25, day 22-28 and day 26-32. This figure gives an idea of how well the predicted anomalies verified against the ECMWF analysis and also about the consistency between the monthly forecasts from one week to another.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif Put a fork in winter snow,

Forecasters believe the ongoing weak-to-moderate La Niña is currently peaking and will weaken into the spring.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr1.144hr.png "MiniRidge"

Forecasters believe the ongoing weak-to-moderate La Niña is currently peaking and will weaken into the spring.

This graph shows the number of sunspots counted each year for several decades. Notice how the sunspot count rises and falls in an 11-year cycle.

Climate models indicate that weak La Niña conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018. A return to ENSO-neutral conditions before early 2018 is less likely, while the emergence of El Niño before the second quarter of 2018 appears very remote.

We will need the enhancement by El Nina to strengthen the upper subtropical Jet or the southern branch of the polar jet enough to plow through a developing west coast ridge. http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr1.00hr.png