snow_wizard

Really interesting how the area of blocking SE of the main block has greatly improved our outlook. Really unusual setup.

Really perfect surface pressure gradient to effectively deliver cold air to the Puget Sound Basin Monday / Monday night. Amazing we are going to end the month with another legit cold shot. I sure hope we can get snow out of this next round of cold.

Looks like the first wave of cold early next week is on. The time frame is pretty short now. Just like previous events this winter the cutoff continues to trend weaker and further SW as the time frame narrows. On another note the last 4 CFS runs have all shown solid cold weather over WA in early to mid February.

The goal is obviously to have them made in the US.

The UKMET and ECMWF MJO forecasts are very favorable for a NW cold wave during week two. A pretty good wave moving into the MC.

Certainly some nice model trends today. The 12z and 18z moved quite markedly toward a colder solution for next week and the 12z GEM was fantastic by around day 9. The move toward a colder outcome for early next week was quite pronounced on the 18z ensemble.

Ironically late Nov 2014 was the best snow event event I've had here since January 2012 in spite of the winter on the whole being an absolute horror show.

Yeah...It's all good. I think Tim has a pretty wrong idea about what I've said on here, but that's fine.

It actually has a different window of opportunity work out for us. Looking like we have two major windows now.

No doubt the next couple of weeks are going to feature huge mood swings on the forum. Pretty interesting to have a pattern with such potential and so much uncertainty last for so long. I do like the fact the GFS and GEM both develop a SE ridge along with the Alaska block as we get into the 8 to 10 day period. Both also show some intrusion of cold air from BC which is going to be an absolute ice box. With the cold air so close in the 6 to 10 days period and such a strong block in play we could get something big on pretty short notice. That having been said I hate that D**n cutoff low in the shorter term.

I haven't heard many reports of Christians disfiguring their wives with acid. It's pretty common in the Middle East among Muslims. It's also quite telling when you look at the statistics of who is behind most of the terrorist attacks in Europe.

It was kind of interesting in a story I was reading about 500 immigrants who entered the country today a photo showed few if any of them of them were women. I thought that was really strange. You have to wonder what became of them. I don't get why the same people who join women's marches in this country defend Islam tooth and nail when they are so horrible to their women.

The European models are looking pretty promising for the MJO wave to enter the MC pretty strongly now. Usually good territory for us, and of course, good for La Nina.

The number of sub 40 highs has been very impressive. I've had 25. Also an impressive number of lows below 25.

On the subject of Muslims...Winston Churchill pointed out how dangerous that religion was over 100 years ago. It's been painfully obvious for a long time now. We are talking about people who totally condone extreme mistreatment of women including husbands dousing their wives with sulfuric acid. A pretty wretched religion. I will add there are obviously some Muslims that are decent people, but how do we know which is which?

I don't think he ever said 5 million. I certainly believe there were some illegal voters.

Can he do the wall just with executive orders? If the thing about the Muslims is true I can't wait to see the liberals freak out about it! No doubt something needs to be done.

That number keeps getting bigger all the time. I have little doubt some illegals voted. Why do you think Democrats are so opposed to requiring voters to show ID? I have a feeling a voter ID bill will finally pass with this administration. Kind of a no brainer that we need it.

I ended up with a pretty chilly 42-26 temperature range today.

Only -4.6? Pretty surprising.

About 3/4 of the ensemble members show the sharp temperature drop around Jan 30 or 31 now. This is really evolving quickly.

I hope there is significant improvement. There have been ensemble members hinting at cold before months end for a while now.

At this point I will take anything. We need to break the ice so to speak.

Interesting trends on the models tonight. Actually the 0z is a continuation of improvements on the 18z. The Canadian is hinting at the same thing, but falls just short. There is still a chance of something decent. One thing to keep in mind is this is a huge block coming up and the details are impossible to resolve yet.