snow_wizard

Looks like the cold air has hung in better than expected today. That will help us tonight for sure.

Yup...it's well advertised the zone will drop south. The WRF actually shows north Pierce and south King Counties doing the best.

For the last time...we will be in Arctic air with strong north winds tomorrow. Little if any melting. You would think some on here have never seen how an Arctic front works. I made the snowfall prediction days ago when nobody had a clue so I'm going to take some credit if it's correct. Tim just can't stand that I've been right about almost everything for a long time now.

So far precip amounts and snowfall are over performing. Hopefully a prelude to tonight. Places are getting snow right now that were supposed to have no precip at all this early.

Going to fun to watch the Needle fireworks with snow falling. No guarantee it will snow at that time, but it's quite possible.

Right now I feel like I did when I was saying I thought Trump might win. Taking a lot of abuse and ending up right is kind of weird.

The NWS is upping the ante now. WWA for the Seattle area for up to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. Just for the record my prediction for a few days now has been widespread 1 to 3 inches with some places getting 4 or 5. Hmmmm. Seems like I may know something after all.

A couple of pretty decent snow showers came through here over the past half hour. Going to be fun to see what happens tonight. Looks like some places might see accumulation during the day today.

There is supposed to be a brief warmup just ahead o the front. You never know for sure with these things though.

You're seeing things.

It's just frustrating how what would normally considered good ensemble runs are being discounted. I guess people will have to see for themselves.

That's cold enough for snow in all cases.

It's going to be fun being one of the only ones on the forum right about all of this. There are a few others also I know.

For he record...going into tonight I know there will be a window where the air mass won't be cold enough for snow. By the time convergence occurs that won't be the case though.

Just makes it unenjoyable being on here. Stupid.

One thing to point out is the GFS ensemble and ECMWF ensemble are both clearly showing a second cold wave beginning around the 9th or 10th. That is after the several days of cold weather this coming week. Not wish casting or rose colored glasses...just saying what the two best medium range models are showing. The Canadian ensemble is good in that period also. The mood on here today just has me baffled. A lot of people are going to have snow tonight!

Can someone please tell me why everyone is so convinced we are screwed? I just don't see it.

You don't think it shows snow for Seattle too? We are actually better positioned in week two.

Good lord. I've been going over the top for a reason today. About 10 days down the road everyone will remember how right I've been. You guys are way overreacting. A vast majority of tools at our disposal still say week 2 will be good after much of week one being cold. I guess there's just no way I'm going to convince you of this.

But, but, but the sky is falling! Didn't you know that?

Very nice to see the ECMWF has the best mean for week two. People need to chill. This still looks good overall. Remember the ECMWF operational has bad skill for week two since the upgrade they did.

It's actually quite good after the brief warmup.

The Euro ensemble is quite decent. It doesn't take the cutoff low quite as far offshore and kicks it over us sooner. Temps moderate for a short time and get cold again. Still time for the 8 to 12 day period to get REALLY nice for us. A good outcome for week 2 is still very possible.

Looks like I might some action in a little bit. Snow filling in on the radar just to the west of me. Very light east wind should help keep it chilly.

At least up here 1992-93 never got as cold as it's going to in the next few days. It certainly does have the recurring cold theme though. Almost a 1971-72 flavor up this way.