snow_wizard

Praise God. We can put the razor blades way.

The funny thing is I've seen it before and I still laughed that hard. Any idea who made it?

I think he's forgetting Arctic fronts have cold continental air behind them. The temp / dp combo tomorrow will not be favorable for snow melt. The pressure gradients will be favorable to force Fraser River air down to Seattle quite quickly tomorrow.

OMG that is funny! I literally can't breath I'm laughing so hard. I have tears in my eyes.

The Euro's are commies?

I'm still forecasting we will all have a lot of fun this month. It's easy to forget we always deal with these glitches going into a good period of weather.

Pretty impressive how cold it is everywhere right now. I'm still at 32 here and it sounds like a lot of places are in that area. Not bad considering we are ahead of the Arctic front.

The general cold pattern and lowland snow in places. I'm not talking about fine details. Relax...you will have snow tonight. You trust the models way too much. In fact even they are insistent we will have some. This is a good scenario for this area to over perform.

I would say the EPO drop has been more like off a cliff instead of gradual, but you have been pretty accurate for the most part.

A lot of us have been pretty good with this stuff lately. I'm the one who predicted lowland snow (and or snow on the ground) for New Years at least two weeks ago.

At times like this look at the big picture and the ensembles. I just looked at the Canadian ensemble and it has a large number of excellent members for week 2. The analog composites and index forecasts are useful also. Things have mostly been breaking our way in the end lately.

In all fairness things have really starting falling into place for us now. Just had a cold December and January is going to be cold also. The patterns have an old time feel to them all of a sudden. The solar aspect may be kicking in after one very low cycle under our belts and then the recent very quiet conditions.

If this is all still just the appetizer I'm good with that. Some winters have behaved like this in the past. The ultimate payoff is almost always very good.

You were on board with early January. I clearly remember it.

We shall see, but a good outcome is still very possible for us.

We will be fine. Look at the index forecasts. Any ridge over the NW would be unable to last for more than a day or two with that. The models show a quick hitting cold wave in the east and then above normal heights again. The models are struggling right now. Ensembles are the way to go.

That with dps in the 20s should preserve the snow pretty well I would think. I think Tim takes a perverse pleasure in knowing he will have good snow cover no matter what and then making the case nobody else will.

Absolutely. The EPO and PNA both being tanked is a great recipe for us. As strong an anti ridge signature as you could ever want for the NW. In fact the index forecasts are as good as they were when the models were orgasmic. The analog compotes also are. Maybe something to that?

I am beyond puzzled why anyone thinks it will be warm tomorrow. Fraser outflow behind an Arctic front with 25mph north winds in Seattle. It might be a bit above freezing, but the air will be dry. FWIW the WRF insists on low to mid 30s for highs.

Oh brother.

I just can't believe the gnashing of teeth going on about progs a week out in such a complex pattern. The chances for a good outcome are still high IMO. The models have consistently put too much emphasis on offshore cutoff lows this season. We saw that a while back with the event that is about to unfold. As long as the blocking structure is there we're in business.

A radar malfunction over the next 24 hours would really drive some people over the edge I bet.

Nah...it must be somebody dropping cotton balls out of a plane.

Yup. I just hate it when people are like this. Totally ridiculous.

1916 also. Warm interlude followed by more greatness.