snow_wizard

Well...I'm done on here today. I'm going to enjoy my snow tonight and will be back tomorrow. Just not worth putting up with all the negativity.

The GFS ensemble is clearly showing another cold shot around the 11th now. A mean of -8. Pretty similar to the ECMWF ensemble on the 0z. I bet the 12z ECMWF ensemble shows the same. Not that anyone will pay attention to this anyway, because I know the sky is falling.

The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us. Oh yes...the ECMWF drop 850s to -13 at hour 48. I have no idea how people can ruin the fun when we are going to have snow within 24 hours followed by an Arctic outbreak. I was hoping to come on here and have fun today.

The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us.

It's going to snow at your house.

Still looks pretty good overall.

I still think there is underestimation of the coming cold going on.

They actually did ok with the snow you had a couple of weeks ago. There was doubt then also.

People should take notice I'm not melting down over this. If all was lost you all know what I would be like. Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble last night showed the brief mild period, but it snapped right back to a very nice pattern again afterward.

I trust everyone has calmed down since last night. Snowfall maps still show a big snow event for Seattle in the 8 to 10 period and tonight looks very interesting. The trend has been to actually strengthen the low a little bit since yesterday's runs. Pretty nice to go into this knowing the Seattle area will have snow. The question is how much. Still potential for unexpected convergence zones and we've already seen a trend toward keeping moisture around longer than originally shown. 1972 has been added to the analog list which is quite interesting because that January featured a bunch of minor cold snaps with bits of snow alternating with brief mild periods and then ultimately a big dump. To this day the January 1972 snowstorm was probably my favorite of all time that I can remember. As long as the Aleutian / GOA block is in play we are in business...there might just be periods where the downstream pattern kicks out over the ocean a bit too much.

I'm done on here tonight. Have fun whining.

People are WAY over-reacting.

And for most of the time before it too. This is so ridiculous. There are like 3 mild days on there.

BTW the GEM is cold at day 10.

It almost becomes unenjoyable when people get like this. It's going to get cold and it's going to snow. Sheesh.

Not really. ECMWF ensemble....

The GEM is cold at day 10. Just wanted to make sure people know that.

And of course he didn't show the WRF. So predictable.

I'm still puzzled over the meltdown on here tonight. Things don't look that bad. The GEM is right back on track by day 10 after a brief period of milder weather. As for temps early next week. I still say highs well below freezing. 850s of -14, strong Fraser outflow, very low thicknesses, and weakest sun of the year. If I'm wrong I have no idea how it could be possible.

After the amazing ECMWF ensemble run today I have my doubts.

WRF is great for this area tomorrow night. 2 to 3 inches here if it verifies. I still say widespread 1 to 3 inches with some places 4 or 5 for the Central Puget Sound. Sunday colder than forecast.

We're good. I can't even see what is THAT bad about this run.

The ECMWF was hinting at that also on the 12z.

I'm glad we're to the point where this is considered a bad run. Actually pretty good for the big picture.

I'm not worried at all about the longer range stuff. People never learn though.