snow_wizard

I'll have to see it to believe for Southern OR Coast.

I have run through this scenario a thousand times and it all looks good. So far it's going exactly as planned. The current temp of 36 is fine for being in the SW wind phase of this. Thankfully the mesoscale models all agree the low center goes just to the east of this area. We always do better on the back side of a low in cases like this.

At this point...you bet it would. Our luck has been colossally bad so far this season.

Yeah...better than the 18z. A tiny bit more south and this could be pretty good here. Still a high chance there will be surprises for King County in general.

Why is it concerning? It's dead on what we want.

Good lord dude.

This isn't our time yet. Late tonight / early tomorrow. Shockingly even the NAM WRF is pretty good for us.

I'm not seeing any real difference on the NAM. Not that it matters much anyway with that model.

We'll know soon enough.

That's the problem with systems moving down from the north. They suck warm air up ahead of them.

The models insist it will slow way down when it gets to this area. Maybe it will get hung up on the terrain or something. There is also good snow falling from the bands north of the low. That is all going to move through. Try a little optimism for once!

I'm not going to comment on posts like this anymore tonight.

This is a classic atypical C-Zone situation for us. The actual zone where the pressure is higher both to the north and south. When that happens the moisture gets further squeezed between the Olympics and the Cascades. This one of the better scenarios for us. Interestingly the models have been trending toward keeping snowfall going into the morning in this area now.

The WRF was showing a brief period of around zero in the SE lee of the Olympics.

Yeah...we are in the warm sector right now. Models say by mid evening the profile will support snow. That is especially true with convergence. I really hope this can be a fun experience for us tonight. Today was painful on the forum.

Looks like the wind shift has reached Vancouver. It also appears the cloud bands north of the low are producing snowfall, so the moisture field is pretty extensive.

For Central Puget Sound we want a north wind plowing into the south wind later tonight. Good things happen with that as you know. The fact that areas with south winds are getting snow means we will have little wait for precip to become snow when the convergence begins.

Yeah...Bellingham getting snow with SE winds is pretty newsworthy. Looks like Vancouver is really doing well so far.

I did say there would be period it would be rain.

It all depends. Some winters the cold gets too firmly entrenched and they get screwed. Dec 2013 is a great example.

Are you shitting me? Please say it's not so!

Normally people would be stoked about that. Anyway...I still think tonight looks really good for many.

I get what you're saying. I went too far.

Weird stuff going with the radar. Definitely good news for South King County (or maybe all of King County) it would appear. Looks like it's filling from different directions.

Yeah...it shows the second cold shot with 850s around -8 for Seattle. Of course that means a colder outcome has a decent chance of happening. The mean doesn't go above -5 until way out there.