snow_wizard

Remember the ECMWF ensemble has been leading the way with this and it was incredible today. Not that the GFS really looks as bad as people are saying.

The GFS is a little stronger with the low tomorrow night and the WRF spits out over 2 inches of snow here!

I've sure never heard of snow melting behind an Arctic front. I can't understand why the NWS is so mild on Sunday. They were getting close this morning and then they raised the temps again. If 510 heights and 850s of -14 can't deliver a high colder than 32 in Seattle something is VERY wrong.

No biggy even if you didn't. According to some on here it won't even get cold enough to keep snow on the ground anyway.

Almost down to freezing already tonight. Looks like I'll end up with 20 lows of 32 or lower this month.

This is way different. The previous ones were all warning shots although it did get down to 18 here one night. It's almost funny to see how everyone is underestimating this. The little cold shot we had in late Nov 2014 was cold enough to keep any snow from melting after it fell in the morning and this thing is much more impressive.

I also think everyone is really underestimating how swiftly the cold air is going to blast in. I expect no melting Sunday at all except maybe in the sun. This is a true Arctic front moving through after all. I have high confidence on this.

Going to be interesting for sure. A slightly more sluggish invasion of cold air could mean the moisture will hang around longer also. I have seen plenty of these where the cold arrives ahead of schedule though. Also bear in mind the air mass is already pretty cold.

Possible. I'm less confident about the exact changeover time than I am about the fact most of King County will have some snow. I do know the cold often moves in quicker than expected with events that actually work out.

Another thing that gives me hope for tomorrow night is the low will be in an intensifying stage when it comes through. Some kind of convergence is almost certain given the squashed zone of lowest pressure drops right over us.

Totally insane. Shave at least 10F off of that.

I don't think there will be any rain by dark tomorrow evening.

I think all of King County will do well. This is totally different than a situation that would bring a normal C-Zone to favor northern areas. I think any busted forecasts will be on the low side. We are going to have cyclonic northerly flow with this and that is one scenario the models often underdo precip in King County. This one just feels and smells right to me.

Puzzling. Just going from thickness numbers and 850mb temps highs solidly below freezing seem almost inevitable. Especially this time of year.

I'm a bit surprised the NWS hasn't dropped the forecasted temps New Year's Eve through early next week. I'm 90% sure it will be colder than they are saying. Thicknesses drop to about 508 over Seattle. I could easily imagine a high in the mid 20s or so. If there is decent snow cover outlying areas should see lows in the 8 to 13 range.

I think a nice goal for the first third of January would be an average temp 12 or more degrees below normal. Should be quite doable.

I think 2+ is pretty realistic.

The 18z is undoubtedly historic for Seattle. Absolute craziness! Very decent support from other models / runs also.

I wouldn't worry too much about it. There are going to be dynamics (atmospheric and topographic) in play too complicated for the models to manage anyway. There always are with these things.

We're going to get hit in January!!!!

I love the forecast for this area tomorrow night. One word "SNOW". Not a chance of snow, possible snow, snow or rain, snow likely, or any qualifiers...just SNOW.

That lake could freeze 8 or more inches thick with what's coming. Amazing that the teaser cold snaps were able to do that much!

No doubt. Thicknesses are going to drop below 510. I could see your area struggling to reach 20 on Monday. Certainly not going to get warmer than the mid 20s.

The ECMWF ensemble is in-freeking-sane! Colder than the 0z ensemble and a perfect signature for snow at the 500mb level. The mean heights are shown to be 528 or so for the Seattle area in the 10 to 12 day period. Incredible for a mean that far out! The operational ECMWF showed over 2 inches of snow for this area tomorrow night, and a total of 9 inches through day 8 or so. This is looking potentially incredible. I've been telling people this January has a realistic shot at being the coldest in 50 years. That kind of puts a concerned look on their faces.

I'm dying to see just how good this is going to be.